\u3000\u3000 Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) (603899)
Maintain the "rapid development" of traditional business and improve the "Fundamentals" of new business
In terms of traditional core business, the company's traditional core business is expected to grow steadily in 2021; With the gradual improvement of the negative impact of the double reduction policy, the optimization of product structure and the improvement of channel efficiency, the company's traditional core business revenue is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 10% - 15% in the next 3-5 years. On the part of klip, it is expected to maintain rapid growth throughout 2021, the scale of revenue is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2022, and the enhancement of scale effect is expected to improve profitability. Jiumu sundry agency is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2021. With the simultaneous increase of the number of stores and the income of the same store, the positive trend will continue in the future. We are optimistic about the company's development prospects, but considering the impact of the double reduction policy, we lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.463/1729/2066 billion yuan (originally 1.505/18.62/2245 billion yuan), the corresponding EPS will be 1.58/1.86/2.23 yuan, and the current share price will be 36.6/31.0/25.9 times that of PE, which is a historical low. Considering the firm position of the company in the industry, we will maintain the "buy" rating.
Traditional core business: product structure optimization + channel efficiency improvement, boosting steady growth
Affected by the double reduction policy and repeated epidemic, and 2020h2 is a high base period of centralized consumption after the epidemic, the traditional core business of 2021h2 company is under pressure in the short term. It is expected that 2021q4 will continue to digest inventory, and the growth of revenue will continue to slow down. Driven by the rapid growth of revenue in the first half of the year, it is expected that the traditional core business will maintain steady growth in 2021. Looking forward to 2022, the negative impact of the double reduction policy is gradually improving, and the overall goods preparation and orders in 2021q4 primary school flood season are close to the historical normal level; At the same time, the company continues to increase the proportion of high-value products and improve channel efficiency. It is expected that the revenue growth of traditional core business will be 10% - 15% in 2022.
New business: kelipu and Jiumu sundry agency are developing rapidly, and their profitability is expected to be improved
Kelip: it is expected that the growth trend will be maintained in 2021q4. The annual revenue in 2021 is expected to exceed 7 billion yuan, and the revenue in 2022 is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan. With the rapid increase of revenue volume, the bargaining power of the company on the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is enhanced. With the subsequent optimization of customer structure and the enhancement of fee control ability, the net interest rate of kelipu is expected to rise. Jiumu sundries agency: it is expected that it will show a rapid growth trend in 2021. Compared with the changes of passenger flow in the same period, Jiumu performs better than the mall as a whole and has obviously stepped into a healthy track. It is estimated that the number of new stores will reach 100 every year from 2021 to 2022. Under the continuous optimization of commodity portfolio and standardized operation, the floor efficiency and profitability are expected to improve simultaneously and can be expected in the future.
Risk tip: the policy affects the industry demand, the epidemic situation in some areas is repeated, and the expansion of new business is lower than expected.
