\u3000\u3000 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (002821)
Event: on February 20, 2022, the company announced that it had signed a 2022 supply contract with overseas customers for a small molecule innovative drug with a cumulative contract amount of about 3.542 billion yuan. At present, the contract has come into force.
Sign large orders again to lay a solid foundation for the accelerated growth of the main industry. The order is another major contract signed by the company since November 17, 2021, when it reached 3.03 billion yuan (US $480, calculated at the offshore exchange rate of 6.32 on February 20, 2022) and November 29, 2021, when the supply time is 2022. As of February 20, 2022, the cumulative amount of three large order contracts has reached 9.292 billion yuan. We believe that the successful landing of this order is not only expected to increase the performance in 2022, but also reflects the company’s comprehensive competitive advantages (quality, efficiency, cost, etc.) in the field of small molecule cdmo. With the continuous accumulation of experience in large orders, subsequent companies are expected to win advantages in obtaining large orders.
Capacity expansion is accelerated, and small molecule cdmo is expected to speed up. With its leading continuous flow chemistry, enzyme catalysis and other technical advantages, the company has undertaken a large number of preclinical to commercial small molecule cdmo projects. Among them, 17 of the later clinical and commercial projects are expected to be heavy varieties exceeding US $1 billion. The renewal of large orders highlights the strong business demand. In order to meet the supply demand, the company accelerates the expansion of production capacity. In 2021h1, the company’s production capacity is about 2979.8m3 (+ 24.2%), and it is expected to release new production capacity in Tianjin, Dunhua and Zhenjiang in the second half of the year and next year. The production capacity is expected to reach 4369.8m3 (+ 56.1%) and 5869.8m3 (+ 34.3%) by the end of 2021 and 2021h2 respectively. It is expected to add about 1390m3 in 2021h2. The release rhythm is accelerated, which is expected to drive the accelerated growth of small molecule cdmo.
The continuous layout of multi fields and the whole industrial chain is expected to bring new growth momentum. Relying on the customer base, technical details and operation platform management system accumulated by small molecule business for many years, the company has built its own cdmo platform for chemical synthetic macromolecules, bioengineering, preparations and biological macromolecules, acquired Guanqin medicine and yipukono, integrated preclinical and clinical cro business, and provided customers with whole process integrated outsourcing services. With the continuous development of new business areas, it is expected to contribute new increments to the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: according to the overview of the company’s newly signed orders, we adjust the company’s profit forecast. We expect the company’s revenue to be 4.583 billion yuan, 8.781 billion yuan and 10.601 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023 (4.118 billion yuan, 5.372 billion yuan and 6.975 billion yuan before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 45.52%, 91.59% and 20.72% (30.73%, 30.47% and 29.83% before adjustment), The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.058, 2.053 and 2.463 billion yuan (970, 1.290 and 1.711 billion yuan before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 46.53%, 93.99% and 20.00% (34.38%, 32.96% and 32.66% before adjustment). Considering that the company is in a high boom and high-quality track of innovative drug R & D and production outsourcing, and has become China’s cdmo leader with comprehensive advantages such as technology, leading the rapid growth of the industry, it is expected to enjoy the valuation premium and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: the public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update, and the loss of core technicians; Risks of raw material supply and price rise, environmental protection and safety production risks; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
