\u3000\u3000 Hainan Development Holdings Nanhai Co.Ltd(002163) (002163)
Event: on February 18, Hainan Development Holdings Nanhai Co.Ltd(002163) issued an announcement to disclose the progress of the bankruptcy reorganization of the former joint-stock company Hainan Tebo. 1) Longma mining enjoys a guaranteed creditor's right of 36.1864 million yuan, which has been paid off in full in cash at one time after deducting the remuneration of the manager; 2) The total amount of ordinary creditor's rights declared by the subsidiary Xiaohui Mining Co., Ltd. was 3.1907 million yuan, which was fully confirmed in the ordinary creditor's rights group. The repayment ratio was 8.81%, and the amount of compensation received was 281100 yuan, with a cumulative compensation of 701300 yuan; 3) With regard to the counter guarantee of RMB 850 million provided by the company to AVIC Tongfei: AVIC Tongfei confirmed that it had received compensation of RMB 112 million in the first capital distribution and RMB 74.8855 million in the third capital distribution, with a cumulative total of about RMB 187 million. After three cumulative fund distributions, the current profit and loss will be increased accordingly, with a total of about 224 million yuan.
Previously, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 72-100 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33% - 52%. The bankruptcy reorganization is expected to affect the profit and loss of 2021. 1) since the corresponding impairment provision has been made for the ordinary creditor's rights of Xiaohui mining in the early stage, the compensation received by Xiaohui mining is expected to affect the profit and loss of 2021 to 281100 yuan; 2) As for the counter guarantee of RMB 850 million provided by the company to AVIC Tongfei, the amount of compensation that can be confirmed in the third compensation plan is RMB 74.8855 million. This event will offset the company's estimated liabilities in 2021, affect the credit impairment loss in 2021, and increase the profit and loss in 2021 by RMB 74.8855 million accordingly. To sum up, it is estimated that the total current profit and loss will be increased by about 75.1666 million yuan. Considering that the company previously expected that with the continuous promotion of Hainan Tebo's reorganization plan, it may still reduce the guaranteed debt by 55.55 million yuan, and the company has correspondingly offset the impairment provision of 55.55 million yuan withdrawn last year, so the current profit and loss should be adjusted by 19.966 million yuan.
With the promotion of the bankruptcy reorganization of Hainan Tebo, under the background of the rapid development of tax exemption in Hainan, the controlling shareholders support to promote the layout of Hainan Development Holdings Nanhai Co.Ltd(002163) in the tax-free industry, and the injection of tax-free business is expected to accelerate. In order to promote the strategic transformation of the company, the company transferred 45% equity of Hainan Haikong duty free products Group Co., Ltd. by means of non-public agreement transfer. On April 9, 2021, Hainan holdings issued a letter of commitment, promising to steadily promote the injection of the controlling right of its subordinate duty-free goods business entity global consumer goods (Hainan) Trading Co., Ltd. into the company within three years after the completion of the non-public offering in 2021, which means that Hainan Development Holdings Nanhai Co.Ltd(002163) will undertake all duty-free businesses of Haifa holdings. We believe that the company will seize the historical opportunity of the construction of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Great Bay area and Hainan free trade port, rely on the local resource advantages of the controlling shareholder and its own core competence, and gradually implement transformation and upgrading and enhance its competitiveness according to the strategic development plan.
Investment suggestion: the bankruptcy reorganization of Hainan Tebo will be an opportunity to promote Hainan Development Holdings Nanhai Co.Ltd(002163) further transformation and upgrading. Stimulated by the tax-free policy, the tax-free market in Hainan will further expand, Hainan Development Holdings Nanhai Co.Ltd(002163) with the strong support of the controlling shareholders, the business expansion of the tax-free market will bring strong growth points to the company, which is conducive to the company's participation in the tax-free market in Hainan and realize business diversification. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 110 / 180 million in 21-22 years, and the corresponding PE multiples will be 88 / 54x respectively.
Risk tips: macroeconomic risks; New business management and operational risk; Market fluctuation risk; The company's transformation is less than expected, and the subsequent asset injection is less than expected; The data has not been audited, and the specific accounting treatment shall be subject to the annual audit results of the audit institution
