1. Core conclusion of “counting from the east to the west”: head aggregation and regional differentiation
In the recent “counting from the east to the west” project, combined with the energy consumption control policy under the “double carbon” background last year and the notice on the three-year action plan for the development of new data centers (2021-2023) (hereinafter referred to as the three-year action plan) issued by the Ministry of industry and information technology on July 4, 2021, we believe that the core conclusions are as follows:
(1) the industrial supply and demand structure has been facing a state of oversupply for a long time. In the late stage of the price war, there is limited room for the decline of industrial prices, especially in the first tier cities and surrounding areas (especially in North China), and the prices in non first tier regions are still unclear, which is greatly affected by the policy.
(2) the value of business data in the first tier cities and surrounding areas is stable, high-value and high-quality data are still converging to “finance” and “technology”, and pay attention to interaction. The business development model of “retail + surrounding wholesale” in the first tier cities is basically finalized. Its business layout center is still concentrated in the first tier cities and surrounding areas, and the energy consumption and resource attributes of relevant leaders are scarce in long-term business.
(3) non first tier cities mainly focus on non real-time computing power demand. Referring to the development form of self built business, the main business will be promoted by EPC and other modes, and the business transfer still needs a certain transition time. However, there is a large industrial space in the future, with strong long-term growth certainty, and the leaders start to layout one after another.
2. Industry development prospect:
After a series of industry turbulence, such as intensified industry competition, rent withdrawal of small and medium-sized enterprises under the influence of the epidemic, self construction of large cloud manufacturers and so on, the valuation level of China’s overall industry has been moving downward. At present, it has been significantly lower than the average valuation level of the four major IDC manufacturers in North America, but the growth rate of its corresponding industry is still higher than that in North America, The main reason for this gap is that the share price performance caused by the industry capital cycle lags behind the market. In addition, the decline of long-term interest rates in the United States, the first recovery of North American cloud manufacturer capex, and China’s Internet policy supervision also have an impact.
From the current point of time, the industry is facing accelerated integration, listed company platforms with more financing channels and industry veterans with enough know how are easier to establish long-term growth barriers in this industry marathon.
3. Recommendation logic
Under the catalysis of industry capital cycle, IDC industry is in the inflection point stage of fierce competition and accelerated integration. In the long run, it is still a growth industry with upward focus. At this time, enterprises with better capital cost and liability structure, wider financing channels, relative income and more sufficient food, grass and ammunition; At the same time, the industry know how provides more lasting endurance and is expected to take the lead in the energy reform of the industry. Relevant beneficiary targets include Beijing Sinnet Technology Co.Ltd(300383) , Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co.Ltd(300738) , Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Wanguo data (Hong Kong stocks), Qinhuai data (US stocks), etc. In addition, other players in the industry waiting to join or restructure are also expected to benefit, including Black Peony (Group) Co.Ltd(600510) , Capitalonline Date Service Co.Ltd(300846) , Mcc Meili Cloud Computing Industry Investment Co.Ltd(000815) .
Finally, the policy restricts the admission of IDC with high pue value, and the decline of idcpue is the general trend. Relevant cooling, management system and solutions, power supply, data storage and other technologies are expected to take the lead in making breakthroughs. Among them, 1) update high-performance servers and other hardware equipment: adopt the latest CPU servers, and increase the cabinet density can reduce the cooling and power demand of facilities. 2) Improve the cooling efficiency of the machine room: on the one hand, the cooling efficiency depends on the IDC design, on the other hand, it depends on the hardware equipment and operation mode adopted in the actual operation of IDC. The cooling technology is undergoing changes from water-cooled cooling to indirect evaporative cooling system and then to immersion liquid cooling. The beneficiary companies include Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Nanjing Canatal Data-Centre Environmental Tech Co.Ltd(603912) , Yimikang Tech.Group.Co.Ltd(300249) , Wangsu Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300017) , etc. 3) HVDC and prefabricated micro module integration technology will become an important solution for power supply equipment in the future. The beneficiary companies include Hangzhou Zhongheng Electric Co.Ltd(002364) , Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) , Black Peony (Group) Co.Ltd(600510) , Shanghaichengdiconstructioncorporationltd(603887) etc.: 4) cold data storage, excellent energy-saving effect of optical disc: make full use of the reliable and long-term storage characteristics of Blu ray disc to construct a high-density optical disc library to realize the long-term safe storage of massive information data, The power saving rate is more than 80%, and relevant beneficiary companies include Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology Co.Ltd(300212) , Capitalonline Date Service Co.Ltd(300846) , Amethystum Storage Technology Co.Ltd(688086) . In addition, based on the growth of the overall data scale, network and server related equipment manufacturers are also expected to benefit, including Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) , Zte Corporation(000063) , Fujian Star-Net Communication Co.Ltd(002396) , Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) , etc.
6. Risk warning: the project progress of “counting from the east to the west” is not as expected; The business demand in the western region is less than expected; Risk of price reduction due to intensified business competition; Policy risk; Systemic risk.
