\u3000\u30001. Recommended combination
\u3000\u3000 Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) 、 Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) 、 Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) 、 Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) 、 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) 、 Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) 、 Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) 、 Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) 、 Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) 、 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) 、 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) 、 Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) 、 Shareate Tools Ltd(688257)
\u3000\u30002. Key investment points
Construction machinery: the sales volume of excavator in January was – 20% year-on-year, and the export doubled strongly
In January 2022, 15607 excavators were sold, with a year-on-year increase of – 20.4%, slightly better than CME’s previous expectation (- 26%). Among them, 8282 units were sold in China, a year-on-year increase of – 48.3%; 7325 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 104.9%, maintaining a strong growth trend. Considering the recovery of overseas markets and the improvement of the global competitiveness of domestic brands, we expect the high growth momentum of subsequent exports to be sufficient to effectively smooth the cyclical fluctuations of the Chinese market.
The issuance of special bonds was accelerated, and attention was paid to the opportunities of the construction machinery sector under the background of steady growth. In December 2021, the central economic work conference set the tone of “steady growth”. At the end of 2021, the issuance of special bonds was accelerated. The Ministry of Finance issued a quota of 1.46 trillion yuan of new special bonds in 2022 in advance, promoting the issuance and use of the quota in the first quarter of this year. The issuance of new special bonds will be accelerated to promote the physical workload of major projects. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of the construction machinery sector under the background of steady growth of infrastructure construction. Recommended: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) .
Power exchange equipment: the power exchange mode welcomes the rapid development, and the equipment suppliers give priority to benefit
With the gradual improvement of China’s policies, many parties can benefit from the power exchange mode. For end users, the power exchange mode has high energy supplement efficiency and the comprehensive cost is lower than that of charging mode; For battery factories, the power exchange mode creates greater battery market space; For the operators of the replacement power station, the capacity utilization rate of the replacement power station can reach 20% to achieve profit and loss balance. When the penetration rate of the replacement electric vehicle type increases and the frequency of power replacement increases, the replacement power station will bring higher profitability. 2022 is the first year of large-scale replacement power station, and Geely, SAIC, FAW, BAIC and other mainstream car enterprises have begun to launch replacement electric models, which benefited the equipment manufacturers most in the early stage of the industry. The core equipment of the power station is charging and discharging equipment, testing equipment and automation equipment. In terms of value, the unit investment of passenger car power exchange equipment is about 2.6 million yuan, and that of commercial vehicle power exchange equipment is about 4.2 million yuan. We expect that in 2025, more than 16000 new power stations will be added, and the investment in new equipment will exceed 60 billion yuan. Investment suggestions: it is recommended to pay attention to Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Csg Smart Science&Technology Co.Ltd(300222) , Inventronics (Hangzhou) Inc(300582) .
Hydrogen energy equipment: policies drive the acceleration of hydrogen energy industry and focus on high-quality “shovel sellers”
With frequent favorable policies, China’s hydrogen energy industry is expected to usher in an acceleration period. Hydrogen is an ideal clean energy under China’s carbon neutralization goal. In recent years, government support policies are frequent, and the industrial economy market is broad. The development of China’s hydrogen energy industry will usher in an accelerated period.
The hydrogen industry involves many core links, and the dawn of localization of core equipment appears. ① Hydrogen production: hydrogen production from fossil energy is the mainstream route in China. In the long run, hydrogen production from electrolytic water, which continues to reduce costs, is the general trend of the industry. As the core equipment for hydrogen production from electrolytic water, alkaline electrolyzer has basically realized localization; ② Hydrogen storage: on-board hydrogen storage is the largest segment of hydrogen storage market. At present, China’s on-board hydrogen storage is still dominated by 35MPa III bottles. 70MPa II and IV hydrogen storage bottles are technically difficult and are still dominated by overseas enterprises; ③ Hydrogenation: in the cost composition of the hydrogenation station, the equipment investment accounts for up to 45%. The core equipment hydrogen compressor and hydrogenation machine are still highly dependent on imports, and equipment localization is the most important means to reduce costs.
The fuel cell market is rapidly opening up, and local equipment companies are accelerating their layout. Fuel cell vehicles are in a period of rapid introduction. GGII predicts that the market scale of fuel cell industry will reach 23 billion yuan in 2023 and 70 billion yuan in 2025. At present, as the industry is still in the early stage of industrialization, the head shuffling phenomenon occurs frequently. With the technical route & determining the market demand and forming the scale effect, we are optimistic about the local enterprises with the first mover advantage to stand out. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.Ltd(002430) , Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) , Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) , Houpu Clean Energy Co.Ltd(300471) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co.Ltd(300228) , Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery Co.Ltd(002158) .
Photovoltaic equipment: the performance of leading equipment companies in 2021 exceeded expectations, with high performance and strong growth certainty in 2022
The company’s performance forecasts that we are optimistic about have all been released, exceeding the consensus expectations of the market. Specifically: (1) Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 1.58-1.84 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 84% – 114%. Wind is expected to be RMB 1.595 billion, close to the lower limit of performance forecast. (2) Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) the performance forecast predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 580-680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47.1% – 72.4%. The median performance forecast is 630 million yuan, and wind unanimously expects it to be 600 million yuan. (3) Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) in the performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be 330-340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 110.2% – 120.1%, and wind is unanimously expected to be 320 million yuan. (4) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) in the performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be 490-510 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 191% – 200%, and wind is unanimously expected to be 450 million yuan. Investment suggestions: focus on Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) for battery equipment, and pay attention to Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ; Silicon wafer link Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) ; Component link recommendation Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; Recommended Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) for thermal field.
General automation: the manufacturing boom continued to pick up, and the monthly data of general equipment improved
In December 2021, the PMI index closed at 50.3%, up 0.2pct from the previous month and in the expansion range for two consecutive months. The fixed asset investment in industrial production and manufacturing was better than the market expectation. The industrial added value in December was + 4.3% year-on-year, the cumulative completed amount of fixed asset investment in manufacturing from January to December was + 13.5% year-on-year, and the single month in December was + 11.8% year-on-year. The manufacturing investment continued to improve.
The monthly output data of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and machine tools have rebounded to the second highest point in 2021. In December, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output was 35175 sets, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.1% and a month on month increase of + 10.2%; The output of metal cutting machine tools was 60000 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.8% and a month on month increase of + 25%, both of which have rebounded to the monthly second highest point in 2021. We judge that the main reasons are: 1) the boom of manufacturing industry rebounds; 2) Under the relief of export boom and core shortage, the two main downstream of automobile and 3C are in continuous recovery. Investment suggestions: reducer recommended Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) , Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ; Tool recommendations Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) ; Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) recommended Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ; Machine tools Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) , and Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) are recommended.
Risk warning: the downstream fixed asset investment is less than the market expectation; Cyclical fluctuations in the industry; The impact of the epidemic continues.
