Core view: chip shortage continues, optimistic about power semiconductors
In 2021, automotive semiconductors experienced the largest increase in nearly a decade. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, although the shipment of automotive semiconductors has increased significantly, some American automobile enterprises are still forced to stop production due to lack of core. We believe that the mismatch between supply and demand of automotive semiconductors is mainly due to the rapid growth of global demand for new energy vehicles in 2021 and the complex supply chain of semiconductors, which has reduced the conduction speed of supply and demand. We judge that some automotive power semiconductors will continue to be in short supply in 2022, and Chinese power semiconductor manufacturers may be able to obtain the driving force for sustained growth.
According to the demand side analysis, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 was 6.94 million, with a year-on-year increase of 106.4%. In 2020, the global automotive semiconductor market will be about 35 billion US dollars, of which power semiconductor will be about 9 billion US dollars, accounting for about 25.7% of automotive semiconductor. In 2022, the global automotive power semiconductor market will reach 13 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of about 18%.
From the perspective of supply side, Infineon, which ranks first in the global automotive semiconductor market (13.2%), achieved an automotive business revenue of € 4.841 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 48.41%. About 50% of Infineon's automotive semiconductor business is power semiconductor. According to SIA, the capacity utilization rate of global semiconductor fab plants remained above 80% in 2021, which means that global semiconductors are already operating at full capacity and need to expand capacity to meet the growing demand for electric vehicles.
We have counted the production capacity of the world's major power semiconductor manufacturers and found that there is less new production capacity abroad in 2022. China's power semiconductor manufacturers with independent production capacity and entering the automobile supply chain may benefit from this round of core shortage cycle and continue the growth trend in 2021.
It is suggested to pay attention to: the leader of high boom industry, and the targets of performance growth are relatively certain: Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic Co.Ltd(603228) , Wus Printed Circuit (Kunshan) Co.Ltd(002463) .
Risk warning: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the epidemic development is higher than expected, and liquidity risk
