Market performance:
In the current period (2022.2.14-2022.2.18), the non bank (Shenwan) index was – 3.93%, ranking 31 / 31 in the industry, the brokerage II index was – 5.08%, and the insurance II index was – 2.13%;
Shanghai Composite Index + 0.80%, Shenzhen Component Index + 1.78%, gem index + 2.93%.
The rise and fall of individual stocks ranked among the top five: Sunny Loan Top Co.Ltd(600830) (+ 9.83%), Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc(000712) (+ 7.32%), Anhui Xinli Finance Co.Ltd(600318) (+ 4.95%), Sichuan Western Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600139) (+ 2.86%), Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) (+ 2.30%);
The top five stocks rose or fell: China stock market news (- 14.65%), Shenzhen Asia Link Technology Development Co.Ltd(002316) (- 10.11%), Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (- 8.89%), Panda Financial Holding Corp.Ltd(600599) (- 7.92%), Xiangcai Co.Ltd(600095) (- 6.45%).
Core view
Securities companies: the non bank sector fell 3.93% this week, ranking the last in the industry. Among them, the brokerage sector generally fell. In terms of the market, there are the following aspects:
1. On February 14, the brokerage sector fell sharply as a whole, and most of the leading stocks were securities companies that the market generally believed that the profits of public funds contributed greatly and were generally considered to be more successful in the transformation of wealth management. Such as China stock market news (- 14.65%), Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (- 8.89%), etc.
2. On February 18, the brokerage sector rose in the short term. In addition to Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) , Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) , Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) , Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and other stocks with strong performance certainty led the rise.
The main reason for this phenomenon is that the fund issuance is cold and the fund consignment data is less than expected. Affected by the sharp shock and correction of the market since the beginning of the year, the prosperity of the fund issuance market has plummeted. During the year, a total of 38 funds extended the raising period, 3 funds announced the failure of raising, and the overall number and scale of issuance were much lower than that in the same period last year. In January 2022, 185 funds were newly established, a decrease of 71 over the same period last year, with a total of 92.946 billion shares issued, a year-on-year decrease of 83.62%. As of February 18, 2022, a total of 13 copies were issued in February, with a total of 2.409 billion copies, far lower than the level in the same period last year. Superimposed on the fund consignment data for the fourth quarter of 2021 released by China Foundation Association, the market share of securities companies was once again occupied by third-party institutions, which triggered the market’s short-term pessimism about wealth management.
However, in the medium and long term, with the expansion of the capital market and the gradual shift of residents’ wealth to the equity market, wealth management is still the key direction of securities companies. From the market’s northward capital performance in the past five trading days, the net purchases of China stock market news (+ 339 million yuan), Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (+ 180 million yuan), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) (25 million yuan) rank first, and wealth management is still the key allocation direction of foreign capital. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the undervalued securities companies whose performance exceeds expectations and the securities companies with strong wealth management strength, such as Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , etc.
Insurance: the insurance sector fell by 2.13% this week, underperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 3003.21 PCT, underperforming Shanghai Composite Index by 2.93 PCT, and the share prices of Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) rose by – 1.96%, – 1.44%, – 2.25%, – 2.95% and – 3.32% respectively. The overall performance was poor.
This week, five listed insurance companies successively released the premium data of January. In the life insurance sector, the year-on-year growth rates of Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) and New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) were – 0.6%, 30.2%, – 1.1%, – 5.3% and 3.8% respectively. The overall pressure state has not changed. Objectively, the Spring Festival holiday affects the promotion rhythm of exhibition industry in January in advance, and the epidemic situation in the first and second tier cities has a sporadic disturbance to the market during the Chinese New Year; In the industry, the overall scale of the agent team has decreased, and the production capacity is still affected. The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) increased significantly, mainly because the proportion of single premium rose to 38% of the whole life insurance, and the premium increased by 136.6% year-on-year, but this hindered the promotion of the value of new business.
In the property insurance sector, the year-on-year growth rates of Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) were 8.3%, 13.8% and 12.7% respectively. 2021 is the year when the comprehensive reform of automobile insurance is completed, and the base is low. After October 2021, the concentration of automobile insurance market has increased, and the products and services have been gradually standardized and optimized, making the data of the beginning of the year better.
On the whole, on the liability side of the insurance sector, with the optimization of the agent team, the life insurance reform has entered the middle and late stage, and the property insurance has begun to pick up after the comprehensive reform of automobile insurance, with a more reasonable structure. On the asset side, the marginal real estate policy has been loosened, the liquidity pressure of real estate enterprises has been alleviated to a certain extent, and the security of the asset side has been improved.
The negative assets of the insurance sector are gradually restored at both ends, and the bottom building stage is not over yet. The inflection point needs to wait, but the valuation of the sector is low. Under the stimulation of short-term policies, it is suggested to pay attention to the valuation repair opportunities.
Risk tips: strengthened supervision, intensified external market risks, market fluctuations and repeated epidemics
