In January, the sales volume of electric vehicles was strong, the off-season was not light, and the certainty of high growth throughout the year was strong. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January was 431000, with a year-on-year increase of 135.8% and a month on month decrease of 18.6%, in line with market expectations. In January, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 419000, with a year-on-year increase of 138.7% and a month on month decrease of 15.7%; The output was 437000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 134.6% and a month on month decrease of 10.4%. In January, the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles was about 12000, with a year-on-year increase of 66.6% and a month on month decrease of 62.6%; The output was 16000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 99.7% and a month on month decrease of 48.1%. We expect that the sales volume of 2022q1 is expected to exceed 1.1 million, laying the foundation for high growth in the whole year. The sales volume of electric vehicles in the whole year is expected to reach 6 million (including exports), with a year-on-year increase of 70%.
In January, the performance of high-end cars was still strong, the sales volume of low-end cars fell after the impulse at the end of the year, and the sales structure exceeded expectations. In January, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 408000, with a month on month ratio of + 142% / – 19%. The sales volume of pure electric passenger vehicles was 329000, accounting for 81%. Among them, the sales volume of A00 class was 100700, with a year-on-year increase of 54% and a month on month decrease of 30%, accounting for 31%; A0 class sales volume was 50900, with a year-on-year increase of 657% and a month on month decrease of 17%, accounting for 15%; Class a sales volume was 74500, with a year-on-year increase of 166% and a month on month decrease of 19%, accounting for 23%; Class B sales volume was 100800, with a year-on-year increase of 149% and a month on month decrease of 14%, accounting for 31%. The sales volume of plug-in passenger vehicles was 78800, with a year-on-year increase of 202% and a month on month decrease of 4%, accounting for 19% of the sales volume of new energy vehicles.
In January, the export of new energy vehicles was 51700, with a significant increase on a month on month basis. In January, 51700 new energy vehicles were exported, with a month on month increase of + 764% / 278%, including 50800 pure electric passenger vehicles, with a month on month increase of 339%; The export of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles was 10000, down 54% month on month.
In terms of the types of car enterprises, traditional car enterprises and new forces have performed brilliantly, and the market share has increased steadily. In January, 248200 vehicles were sold by independent car enterprises, with a year-on-year increase of 131%, a month on month decrease of 21%, a market share of 61%, and a month on month increase of 1PCT; In January, new forces sold 64400 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 150%, a month on month decrease of 13%, a market share of 16%, and a month on month increase of 1PCT; The joint venture car enterprises sold 25400 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 122%, a month on month decrease of 29% and a market share of 6%; In January, 9900 luxury vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 104%, a month on month increase of 1% and a market share of 2%; Tesla sold 59800 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 216%, a month on month decrease of 16% and a market share of 15%.
From the perspective of auto enterprises, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla and Shangtong Wuling rank among the top 3, and their own brands continue to make efforts. Byd Company Limited(002594) the sales volume of main models increased steadily, with 93100 vehicles sold in January, a year-on-year increase of 358%, a month on month increase of 0%, accounting for 23%, and the sales volume in a single month ranked first; Tesla China sold 59800 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 216% and a month on month decrease of 16%, accounting for 15%, ranking second in monthly sales; Shangtong Wuling sold 40000 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 4% and a month on month decrease of 34%, accounting for 10%, ranking third in monthly sales. According to models, Hongguang mini (A00) sold 37000 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 1% and a month on month decrease of 34%, accounting for 11.3%; Modely (class B) ranked second, selling 33300 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 1929% and a month on month decrease of 18%, accounting for 10.1%; Model 3 (class B) sold 26500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 54% and a month on month decrease of 12%, accounting for 8.1%.
Investment suggestion: 431000 electric vehicles were sold in January, with a month on month ratio of + 135.8% / – 18.6%, in line with market expectations. In the 22-year new model cycle, we expect to sell 6 million vehicles (including exports), an increase of 70% at the same time. The sales volume in Europe is expected to double to 1.3 million yards, and we expect it to continue to double to 1.3 million yards in the United States. We expect that the global sales volume will be 10 million vehicles + in 2022, still maintaining a growth of 65%. The off-season of 22q1 is not light, and the high outlook continues. We continue to look at the electric vehicle leaders in an all-round way. The first main line is optimistic about the battery links that have been profitable and repaired in 22 years. The long-term pattern is good, with superimposed energy storage support, leading Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , second line Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) (attention), Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) (note), The second main line battery technology upgrade: high nickel ternary cathode ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ), structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ), lithium ferromanganese ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ), additives ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); The third is the leading companies that have been in short supply for 22 years: negative electrode ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ), diaphragm ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ), copper foil ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (attention), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ), electrolyte ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) ), lithium carbonate ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (attention), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (attention)), etc.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, the policy is lower than expected, and the competition is intensified
