Focus on the rising price of PV industry and wind power industry
The supply of silicon is rigid, and the short-term demand drives the price rise of photovoltaic modules. According to the data of the silicon industry branch, the price of single crystal re feeding this week was 235000-249000 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.12%, which continued the slight upward trend. The vast majority of silicon material enterprises traded loose orders or supplementary orders. The silicon material supply increment in February was less than the demand increment. It is expected that China’s silicon material output will increase by 2000-3000 tons month-on-month in March, and the silicon wafer output will increase by 1-2gw month-on-month. The bidding price of PV modules in the third batch of PV modules in China resources market continued to rise by 871-999yuan, which was higher than the expected price of PV modules in the third batch of PV modules in China resources market, and the average price of PV modules in China resources market continued to rise by 871-999yuan, The contradiction in the current photovoltaic market lies in the contradiction between the slow release of silicon supply and the continuous release of potential demand. In the long run, the demand for photovoltaic is highly uncertain, and the power equipment industry is rated as “overweight”.
The pattern takes priority, and the photovoltaic glass is at the low point of phased cycle. The market price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass this week is about 25 yuan / Ping. At present, the raw material soda ash is relatively high, and the profit space of photovoltaic glass is compressed. Some enterprises choose to wait and see and delay ignition after building kilns, mainly because the current profit is low. The cost curve of photovoltaic glass production enterprises is steep. The first two manufacturers have obvious cost advantages, and the pace of production expansion is relatively determined. The pace of production expansion of second and third tier manufacturers is strongly related to the market price. In the long run, the continuous production expansion of the industry as a whole and the low price of photovoltaic glass cannot coexist. The industry pattern is better than the market expectation, and the industry profit and the willingness of enterprises to expand production and ignition are at a phased low point, Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (A / h) and Xinyi solar energy are recommended.
The bidding price of wind power continues to decline, and attention is paid to the localization of main bearings. The procurement project of wind turbine (including tower, anchor bolt and anchor sector) of China Resources Power Wulat Zhongqi 100MW wind power project was opened. Nine complete machine manufacturers such as vision energy and Sany Heavy energy participated in the bidding. The lowest quotation including tower is 1889 yuan / kW, and the average bidding price is about 2100 yuan / kW. If the tower is removed, the average price of wind turbine is expected to be about 1700 yuan / kW. The price of wind turbine continues to decline, the demand for localization of core parts of main engine plant is strong, the localization of main bearing is expected to accelerate, the value of single MW of large-scale main bearing is expected to increase, and the leading domestic bearing enterprises are expected to benefit. It is recommended that Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) .
Industry trends: 12 ministries and commissions jointly issued documents to promote photovoltaic innovation, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) and Trina Solar signed a 15.95 billion silicon wafer contract
Industry trends: 1) the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of Finance and other departments jointly issued the notice on printing and Distributing Several Policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy. The notice proposes to organize and implement the special action for the innovation and development of photovoltaic industry and implement the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases in desert Gobi desert areas. 2) The Ministry of industry and information technology published the article “aiming at high-quality development of China’s photovoltaic industry in 2021 and achieving a good start in the 14th five year plan”. The article shows that in 2021, the export of PV exceeded US $28.4 billion, and the output of polysilicon, silicon wafer, battery and module reached 505000 tons, 227gw, 198gw and 182gw respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, 40.6%, 46.9% and 46.1% respectively. 3) The “counting from the east to the west” project was officially launched, which will help to greatly increase the proportion of green energy, absorb green energy in the West nearby, and optimize the energy efficiency of the data center. 4) Heilongjiang will promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy system during the 14th Five Year Plan period. By 2025, the installed capacity of non fossil energy in the province will account for more than 50%, and the installed capacity of new and renewable energy such as wind power, photovoltaic power generation and biomass power generation will be more than 30 million KW.
Company dynamics: 1) Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) signed 1.892 billion wafer contract with Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , with an estimated sales of 15.95 billion yuan. 2) Power investment energy plans to establish a joint venture with Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) to develop and build a 200MW wind storage integration project. 3) Mubang high tech plans to acquire haoan energy for 1.1 billion to enter silicon wafers. 4) China haizhuang won the bid for Jingneng 300MW wind power project. 5) Haili wind power: it is proposed to invest 1 billion yuan in high-end wind power equipment manufacturing project. 6) Rainbow new energy signed 3.6 billion photovoltaic glass orders with Jingke energy. 7) Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) sign the investment framework agreement for 1GW photovoltaic power generation and supporting projects. 8) Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) it is proposed to raise nearly 4 billion plus 610mw photovoltaic power station. 9) Shanghai Tianchen Co.Ltd(600620) set up a joint venture with Huasheng new energy to enter hjt. 10) Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) won a large equipment sales order of RMB 540 million from Qujing Jingao. 11) CLP construction, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) and Shanghai Institute: won the bid for the 1900mw photovoltaic EPC project of the Three Gorges Project.
Industrial chain tracking: the price of silicon material keeps stable and rises slightly, and the price of components tends to be the same
Silicon material: the price range of China’s single crystal re feeding this week was 235000-249000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 243000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.12%; The price range of single crystal compact is 233000-247000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rises to 240700 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.21%. The price of silicon material continued to rise slightly this week, with the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding, single crystal compact material and single crystal cauliflower material rising by 0.1% – 0.2%. In terms of supply, China’s silicon material output is expected to increase by 2000-3000 tons month on month in March, down 3% – 5% from the expected level. In terms of demand, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises will remain stable or increase slightly, and the new production capacity will continue to be released steadily. It is expected that the silicon wafer output will increase by 1-2gw month on month in March. The supply increment is less than expected and less than the demand increment. The overall supply and demand basically matches or is slightly insufficient. The silicon material and silicon wafer links maintain basically normal circulation inventory, and there is still room to replenish inventory. In addition, China’s installed capacity has been started one after another, and the early-stage procurement has been followed up gradually. To sum up, it is expected that the price of silicon material will continue to rise steadily and slightly in the short term. Silicon wafer: the average transaction price of 166mm single crystal silicon wafer in China this week was 5.31 yuan / piece, up 0.6% month on month; The average transaction price of 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafer was 6.39 yuan / wafer, up 0.6% month on month; The average transaction price of 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer was 8.45 yuan / piece, which was the same as that of last week. The order signing of silicon wafer is good, and mainstream manufacturers face various problems in the process of silicon wafer order delivery. The price of monocrystalline silicon wafer is positively affected by the concentration of demand. The prices of second-line silicon wafer manufacturers have been raised one after another, gradually approaching the price range announced by central on January 26. Battery: the average transaction price of 166mm battery in China this week was 1.09/w, which was the same as that of last week; This week, the average transaction price of 182mm battery chips in China was 1.12 yuan / W, up 0.9% month on month; This week, the average transaction price of 210mm battery chips in China was 1.12 yuan / W, up 0.9% month on month. The upstream price continued to rise slightly this week, and there was little difference between the transaction price range and last week. The overseas average price was also affected by the growth of overseas sales in South Korea, India and other places and the slight increase of price. The stability of battery order is maintained, which makes the silicon order have certain support, and the silicon price is difficult to decline significantly in the short term. In the short term, China’s battery price is maintained stable, while overseas regions benefit from the demand, and there is still a certain premium space. For the polycrystalline part, affected by the rise of silicon wafer price, there is still a price rise trend in the follow-up.
Components: the average transaction prices of 166mm, 182mm and 210mm components in China this week were 1.86 yuan / W, 1.88 yuan / W and 1.88 yuan / W respectively, the same as last week. Although the component side has started to adjust the pricing strategy this week, and it is expected to adjust the price range of China by about 2 cents per watt and US $0.002-0.004 per watt overseas, the price is limited by the terminal acceptance this week, and there is no significant rise in the price for the time being. Only the prices of some channel distributed projects come to RMB 1.9-1.92 per watt (including transportation and tax). At present, manufacturers and terminals are still in a wait-and-see attitude. Some manufacturers have reduced material orders and some component manufacturers plan to reduce the production rate from late February to March. Terminals are also limited by the price rise and wait-and-see mood due to the unclear visibility of orders in March. It is worth noting that the share of 166 city has declined, and manufacturers have plans to transform their production capacity in the first half of the year. The reduction of output will also be linked with the gradual convergence of 166 and 182 specifications.
Market performance last week: the power equipment sector increased by 5.53%, ranking first
Last week’s market review: the power equipment sector increased by 5.53% (up – 8.18% last week), ranking first (a total of 28 primary sub industries), 4.73 percentage points compared with the Shanghai Composite Index and 4.45 percentage points compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.
Among the constituent stocks of the industry (Shenwan power equipment) last week, the top five weekly gainers were Shanghai Holystar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688330) (+ 19.18%), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (+ 16.89%), Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) (+ 16.64%), Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) (+ 15.86%) and Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) (+ 15.77%). The last five weekly gainers were Beijing Relpow Technology Co.Ltd(300593) (- 6.57%), Shanghai Zhezhong Group Co.Ltd(002346) (- 6.82%) and Qingdao Huijintong Power Equipment Co.Ltd(603577) (- 8.28%) Dalian Insulator Group Co.Ltd(002606) (- 9.76%) and Jiangsu Daybright Intelligent Electric Co.Ltd(300670) (- 9.80%).
Risk tips
Risk of sharp price reduction of products, sharp rise in the price of raw materials, lower than expected downstream demand, risk of intensified industry competition, systemic risk of the market, performance failure of recommended companies, etc.
