\u3000\u3000 Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002505) (002505)
The company is a comprehensive agricultural industrialization enterprise
The company is a comprehensive senior agricultural industrialization enterprise integrating animal husbandry, dairy industry, food distribution and grain trade. At present, the main operating income comes from protein food trade business. The company has made it clear that the beef cattle business will be the core of profit growth in the future, and is actively layout and expand production. In 2020, the operating revenue of beef cattle business and mutton sheep business increased by 2764.00% and 137.28% year-on-year. In 2021, the company's performance showed a rapid growth trend, with an operating revenue of 11.539 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 25.58% year-on-year; According to the latest annual performance forecast of the company, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 100 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 455.56%.
Beef cattle and sheep industry ushers in a golden period of development
China's meat consumption has continued to rise for many years, the dietary structure has been continuously improved, and the beef cattle and sheep industry has ushered in a golden period of development. According to the Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) data, there is a gap of nearly 3 million tons in China's beef supply and demand in addition to imports, accounting for about 35% of the total demand, and showing a growing trend. There is also a gap of about 200000 tons in Mutton supply and demand. According to the OECD meat consumption structure data, the proportion of beef in residents' meat consumption has increased year by year, and China's per capita beef consumption is far lower than the international level, so there is still much room for further increase. In addition, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the concentration of China's beef cattle and sheep industry is very low. In the future, under the background of policies to vigorously promote the scale and modernization of the industry, leading enterprises are expected to enjoy the growth opportunities brought by the improvement of concentration.
Build beef cattle industry aircraft carrier and create an international trade model
Adhering to the development concept of "global resources + Chinese market", the company grasps multiple scarce resources, builds high industry barriers and thickens the company's profits. Since 2012, the company has successively acquired a number of dairy farms in New Zealand and two agricultural materials companies in Brazil, continuously strengthened the control of scarce resources such as bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) in Brazil and high-quality milk sources in New Zealand, and helped stabilize the grain agricultural materials trade and dairy business. In terms of beef cattle industry, the company has: 1) rich international cow provenance advantages and clear introduction plan; 2) dual guarantee of feed "Myanmar low-cost feed import + local silage supply"; 3) the advantage of the only Myanmar beef cattle import slaughtering license; 4) Yunnan provincial government strongly supports the beef cattle fattening mode of "company + cooperative + Bank + government" to reduce the asset burden and accelerate the expansion of breeding scale, At the same time, drive local farmers to become rich and practice Rural Revitalization and common prosperity. On the whole, the company has obvious competitive advantages in the whole industrial chain. It strives to seize the opportunity of beef supply and demand gap, take the lead in occupying the highland of the industry, realize its own rapid growth and lead the rise of the industry at the same time.
Investment advice
Considering that the gap between supply and demand of beef cattle supports the high price level, the large-scale process of the industry promotes cost reduction and efficiency increase, and the profit space is guaranteed, we expect the company's beef cattle industry to expand rapidly with the support of policies, which is expected to create a new profit growth curve with rapid growth. We believe that the company should enjoy a high valuation level in the industry in 2022. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company's operating revenue will be RMB 143.29/16.226/19.812 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 116/4.25/714 million respectively, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.02/0.07/0.11 respectively, and the current share price will be 184 / 50 / 30x respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given the rating of "overweight".
Risk tips
The introduction progress of breeding cattle is less than expected, there is an epidemic at the breeding end, the product sales are less than expected, and the equity pledge proportion of major shareholders is too high.
