\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) (002314)
Recommendation logic: 1) additional issuance, acquisition, layout of new energy industry, active development of photovoltaic business, self owned roof resources can achieve nearly 1GW installed capacity and create a new window for revenue growth. 2) The high-end warehousing industry is leading, the operation of the logistics park is mature, and the layout of the whole country strives for progress while maintaining stability. 3) The sales amount has increased rapidly, with active land acquisition, abundant soil storage and high-quality resources backed by Nanshan.
Additional issuance of China nuclear energy technology, creating a new situation in photovoltaic business. In 2021, the company plans to become the largest shareholder and layout the photovoltaic business by increasing China nuclear energy technology. China's nuclear energy technology has been deeply engaged in the field of photovoltaic power generation for many years. As of 2021h1, 45 photovoltaic and wind power plants of various types have been managed, with a total installed capacity of 520mw, which can realize in-depth cooperation with the company. The company is rich in site resources. As of 2021h1, the storage and logistics park under operation, management and planning of the company has a total area of 7.6 million square meters, and the planned industrial park under construction, to be built and operating has an area of about 1.62 million square meters, which can achieve about 0.9gw. In addition, the company also has the industrial and commercial roofs of the parent company Nanshan Group as potential expandable resources. PLoS, the second largest shareholder of the company, has experience in the development of distributed photovoltaic projects and has gradually operated distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in 15 provinces and cities across the country. By the end of 2021, the cumulative development scale reached about 1GW, which can enable the development of new businesses of the company.
The scale of warehousing and logistics expanded, and REITs helped the appreciation of assets. By virtue of Baowan logistics platform, 2021h1 company has accumulated a total storage area of 7.6 million m3 under operation, management and planning (including projects to be built), with a year-on-year increase of 11.8%; The warehouse rental rate remained high, reaching 93.1%, and the company's warehousing and logistics network system was continuously improved. Meanwhile, Baowan logistics successfully issued REITs in 2020, and the annual net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 2137% year-on-year; The company continues to actively explore the diversification of financing channels and help the development of high-end warehousing and logistics business.
The sales amount continued to rise, and the land acquisition speed made steady progress. In 2021h1, the company achieved sales of 6.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 258.0%; The amount of equity sales was 5.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 197.0%; The sales area was 261000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of 122.7%. The accumulated land storage area of the company is 1.3 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of 73.8%; Among them, central China accounts for 46.6%, East China accounts for 38.5%, Chengdu accounts for 10.8% and Dongguan accounts for 4.1%. The characteristics of regional deep cultivation are still prominent, and the trend of global radiation is becoming more and more significant.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.8/7.5/800 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of - 47.8% / 10.0% / 7.4% respectively. Taking into account the segment valuation of development business, logistics warehousing and photovoltaic business, the total market value of the company is 14.01 billion yuan, corresponding to 5.17 yuan per share. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the promotion of fixed increase is less than expected, the sales collection is less than expected, the logistics warehouse rental is less than expected, etc.
