\u3000\u3000 Topsec Technologies Group Inc(002212) (002212)
Revenue growth is in line with expectations, and R & D and channel construction affect profits: considering the impact of cable business divestiture and equity transfer of subsidiaries, the network security business achieved a revenue of 3.541 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 25.03%. Excluding the impact of Tongtian technology, the revenue was 3.502 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.23%, and the amount of new orders increased by 48.09%. Subject to the company’s increased investment in R & D and channel construction, the R & D expense of network security business increased by 47.54% year-on-year, and the total R & D expense ratio was 22.70%. Among them, the R & D expense ratio of new directions and new scenes was about 45%, the sales expense of network security business increased by 30.67% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to listed companies was about 435 million yuan, down 14.05% year-on-year, It is expected that the cost of equity incentive will increase slightly compared with that in 2020. There may be room for pressure drop in the rate of follow-up R & D and sales expenses, and the overall net interest rate is expected to improve.
The effect of channel construction is becoming more and more obvious, and the industry segmentation on the marketing side and the subsidence of prefectures and cities continue to advance. As of 2021, the company has set up 116 industry marketing departments for government, finance, energy, operators and other industries, 74 marketing institutions in all provinces and autonomous regions across the country, and nearly 300 industry Certified Partners. In 2021, the company’s network security business sales expenses increased by 30.67% year-on-year. It is mainly used for Industry deepening, land market sinking and channel expansion. The number of sales personnel increased by 15.89%, the number of channel sales personnel accounted for 10.91% of the number of sales personnel, and the channel sales revenue was about 560 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.73%, laying a good foundation for further market coverage.
The firewall business remained stable, and the effect of the new track of the higher research release Bureau gradually appeared. The amount of new orders in 2021 increased by 48.09% year-on-year. Strong product power and orders on hand laid the foundation for future revenue growth. The R & D expenses of the company’s network security business increased by 47.54% year-on-year. R & D expenses are mainly used to consolidate the basic network security business, layout and improve the technologies and products in new directions such as data security, cloud computing, cloud security and security, cloud services, situational awareness and emerging scene businesses such as industrial Internet, Internet of vehicles and Internet of things. The revenue from new directions and new scenes accounted for about 25%, with a year-on-year increase of about 55%. In terms of product structure, the revenue from data security was 217 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 216.45%; Cloud computing revenue was 137 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 240.64%, security cloud service revenue increased by 33.03%, big data and situational awareness revenue was 377 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.10%, and industrial Internet business revenue increased by 598.53%.
The market has poor expectations for the growth sustainability of the company’s firewall business, the layout of new business product lines is perfect, and the endogenous improvement of corporate governance deserves attention. Topsec Technologies Group Inc(002212) is a leading comprehensive security manufacturer in China. It has significant advantages not only in traditional border protection, but also in new areas such as cloud security and state sense. Firewall competition barriers and growth sustainability exceeded expectations: (1) the compliance policy has become stricter, and the next generation firewall products have become the standard configuration of network security, Topsec Technologies Group Inc(002212) the average annual increase of firewall market share in recent three years is about 2%; (2) Overseas network security has developed for more than 30 years, firewall and VPN are still a large share and rapidly developing category, and the PS of related companies is 8 ~ 12 times; (3) Firewall and VPN naturally need to comprehensively consider security and network performance. With the continuous iteration of it upgrading, it is easy to produce scale effect; (4) In the second half of 2020, the background of the reorganized management is more yuan and professional, and the corporate governance structure is becoming more and more perfect. At the same time, a rich equity incentive plan is launched for core business personnel. The channel construction is progressing well, and multiple measures continue to improve the operation efficiency. At present, it has been reflected in the bid winning of Xinchuang and the construction of consignment channels.
Maintain the “buy” rating. We expect the company’s operating revenue to be RMB 3.537/45.98/5.747 billion and net profit to be RMB 441 / 713 / 952 million on 22 / 23 / 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3% / 61.6% / 33.6%, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: competition intensifies risk; The policy strength is less than the expected risk; Slow layout of new areas risks.
