\u3000\u3000 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (600233)
Event:
The operation of the express industry in January and the operation data of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) January have been published.
Industry: in January 2022, the National Express service enterprises realized a business revenue of 91.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, completed a business volume of 8.77 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, a single ticket revenue of 10.46 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.40% and a month on month increase of 16.81%; Among them, the revenue of non local express business reached 45.590 billion yuan, the business volume reached 7.542 billion pieces, and the single ticket revenue was 6.04 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67% and a month on month increase of 13.42%.
In terms of individual stocks: in January 2022, Yuantong realized express delivery revenue of 3.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.09%, completed business volume of 1.329 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 4.84%, single ticket revenue of 2.72 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.55% and a month-on-month increase of 8.40%.
Key investment points:
The demand of the industry rebounded, and the business volume of Yuantong increased steadily
In January 2022, the business volume of the express industry reached 8.77 billion pieces. Affected by the wrong date of the Spring Festival, the growth rate of business volume decreased slightly, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Restore the impact of the Spring Festival. From January 17 to February 6, the express industry collected 3.89 billion pieces, an increase of 34.1% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year, and the cumulative delivery business volume was 4.46 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 36.94%. During the Spring Festival (January 31 to February 6), the express industry collected and delivered 749 million pieces, an increase of 16% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year, and the industry demand boom picked up. In January 2022, Yuantong completed 1.329 billion pieces of business, with a year-on-year increase of 4.84%. The business volume increased steadily, and the market share reached 15.15%, an increase of 0.22pcts compared with January last year.
Single ticket revenue increased by 10% year-on-year, and the stability of the pattern continued to be verified
In January 2022, the single ticket income of Yuantong was 2.72 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.55%; Excluding the impact of the adjustment of the settlement mode of rookie wrapping business, the single ticket income of Yuantong in January was 2.62 yuan, up 0.12 yuan month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 10.34%. The year-on-year growth rate increased continuously for seven months, and the stability of the pattern continued to be verified. There are two reasons for the significant increase of single ticket income in January:
① the industry’s competitive strategy has gradually changed from price driven to value driven. Yuantong continues to promote comprehensive digital transformation, optimize customer structure and upgrade products, and the pricing power of products continues to increase.
② during the “Spring Festival does not close”, the express company will charge extra Spring Festival service fee, and the price of express ticket will rise due to the increase of single ticket weight around the Spring Festival.
Price increases in the short and medium term resonate with the improvement of the pattern, and the internationalization road opens up space for long-term growth
① the price rise in the short and medium term resonates with the improvement of the pattern, and the operating profit continues to be repaired: as the first batch of private express enterprises to embark on the express wave, Yuantong has always been actively seeking change, laid a solid chassis of express giants, and built a solid scale foundation, leading investment structure and continuous in-depth fine management. From 2017 to 2019, the demand dividend of the industry remained, the operating leverage of enterprises increased rapidly, the price for volume strategy became more cost-effective, and the single ticket cost decreased rapidly; Since 2022, the supply and demand environment of the industry has changed, the demand growth center has stabilized, the capital expenditure of enterprises has begun to shrink, and the price competition strategy has gradually failed. Enterprises will rebalance the profit and market share, the single ticket price is expected to stabilize, and the single ticket profit will continue to repair with the cost optimization.
② the self operated shipping company helps Yuantong’s internationalization path and opens up long-term growth space: Yuantong, which has self operated freight shipping company and international freight forwarding resources, has preliminarily completed the layout of international express delivery. With the blessing of cross-border e-commerce logistics, one of the strongest dividends at present, Yuantong is expected to rely on its own trunk transport capacity resources to deeply cultivate core routes, build competitive advantages in cross-border logistics tracks and open up long-term growth space.
The profit forecast and investment rating adjust the profit forecast according to the company’s performance forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue from Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) 2021 to 2023 will be 44.587 billion yuan, 53.795 billion yuan and 60.681 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.160 billion yuan, 3.273 billion yuan and 4.380 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 26.48, 17.48 and 13.06 million yuan respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; Restart the price war; Management improvement is less than expected; Cost control is less than expected; Franchisee’s position explosion; Air freight rate down; Uncertainty of overseas market expansion
