Verification opinions of Zhongming international assets appraisal (Beijing) Co., Ltd. on the reply report of Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.Ltd(600461) on the notice of the CSRC on one-time feedback on the examination of administrative licensing projects
China Securities Regulatory Commission:
We have received the notice of the CSRC on the first feedback on the examination of administrative licensing projects (No. 213005) (hereinafter referred to as the "feedback"). Zhongming international assets appraisal (Beijing) Co., Ltd., as the appraisal institution for the project of Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.Ltd(600461) issuing shares and paying cash to purchase assets, has carefully analyzed and verified the relevant problems. Now, the replies to the questions related to the opinions of the appraisers in the feedback are as follows. Please review them.
Question 11
According to the application documents, 1) Hongcheng Kangheng operates in the form of franchise, and the operating revenue decreases year by year during the revenue forecast period. 2) The predicted growth rates of Hongze thermal power's revenue from 2021 to 2026 are 25%, 5.4%, 7.2%, 2.8%, 6.36% and 5.95% respectively. 3) Hongcheng Kangheng and Hongze thermal power adopt the income method, and Hongyuan environment and Lvyuan environment adopt the asset-based method. Please your company: 1) supplement and disclose the basis and rationality of income prediction such as the amount of garbage, unit price, power generation and electricity price in Hongcheng Kangheng prediction period. 2) Supplement and disclose the prediction basis of raw materials, fuel and power costs, other processing expenses, personnel wages and welfare expenses, repair expenses, depreciation and amortization and other operating costs during the prediction period of Hongcheng Kangheng. 3) Supplement and disclose the relevant data, basis and rationality of the prediction of operating income such as power supply, heat supply, sludge disposal, installation quantity and unit price in the prediction period of Hongze thermal power. 4) Supplement and disclose the prediction basis of material cost, employee salary, water cost, depreciation and amortization, maintenance cost, estimated overhaul cost, operation and maintenance cost and other operating costs of Hongze thermoelectric in the prediction period. 5) Supplementary disclosure shall be made on the impact of the follow-up expenditure of the three projects under construction under Hongyuan environment and Lvyuan environment on the profit forecast and valuation of the underlying assets. 6) Combined with comparable companies and the above data, supplement and disclose the rationality of the profit forecast and valuation of the underlying assets. Independent financial advisers, accountants and appraisers are invited to check and express clear opinions. [reply]
1、 Supplement and disclose the basis and rationality of income prediction such as garbage volume, unit price, power generation and electricity price in Hongcheng Kangheng prediction period.
(I) prediction basis of Hongcheng Kangheng's incoming garbage volume, unit price, power generation, electricity price and other income
1. Prediction basis of incoming waste
The amount of garbage entering the site is determined by the daily amount of garbage entering the site and the annual operation days.
The daily amount of garbage entering the site shall be comprehensively determined according to the historical annual garbage treatment capacity, the total amount of garbage within the scope of franchise rights, garbage treatment capacity, production line treatment capacity, market competition and future planning of regional market. In 2020, Nanchang city's policy requires the realization of "zero landfill". At present, Nanchang waste incineration plant has maiyuan waste incineration plant and Quanling incineration plant, and the planned treatment scale is 2400 tons / day and 1200 tons / day respectively. According to the garbage collection and transportation data provided by Nanchang Urban Management Bureau, the average garbage collection and transportation volume in 2021 is 5000 tons / day, so the garbage treatment capacity of Nanchang cannot cover the total garbage collection and transportation volume. On the premise that the garbage collection and transportation volume is much larger than the garbage treatment volume, the daily incoming garbage volume will be overloaded in the first few years of the prediction period, keeping the incoming garbage volume at about 3010 tons / day and the treatment volume at about 2470 tons / day. After five years of operation, considering the long-term overload operation of the production line,
The efficiency of treatment equipment will decline, so based on caution, the waste treatment capacity will decline.
The number of annual operation days is determined by deducting the number of days of equipment maintenance period from the number of days of the whole year. According to the company's equipment production
And maintenance plan, maintain a certain period of maintenance every year, overhaul every three years, and stop production for one month in normal annual maintenance
In the overhaul year, the company stopped production for about one and a half months.
2. Prediction basis of unit price
The unit price of waste treatment service fee is determined according to the franchise agreement. According to Nanchang solid waste treatment cycle
Article 49 (IV) waste disposal of the franchise agreement for domestic waste incineration power generation project in the Economic Industrial Park
Service fee: the unit price of waste treatment service fee including tax is 114 yuan / ton, and the unit price excluding tax = 114 / 1.06 = 107.55 yuan/
Tons, so the unit price of waste treatment service fee in the prediction period is 107.55 yuan / ton.
3. Prediction basis of power generation
The power generation is determined according to the amount of garbage entering the site and the on grid power of tons of garbage. Main parameters: online power consumption per ton of garbage
It is directly related to the corresponding calorific value of waste. With the deepening of the implementation of waste classification, the corresponding calorific value of domestic waste components
The value will increase to a certain extent, but considering the relative uncertainty of this part, this forecast is based on caution
Considering the safety, the on grid power consumption per ton of garbage is consistent with the historical year.
4. Prediction basis of electricity price
The unit price of electricity is predicted according to relevant policies and regulations. According to the national development and Reform Commission in March 2012
FGJ [2012] No. 801 issued on the 28th: policy of the national development and Reform Commission on improving the price of waste incineration power generation
Notice of policy. If the power generation capacity per ton of incoming waste is less than or equal to 280 kwh, the national unified waste power generation system shall be implemented
The benchmark electricity price is 0.65 yuan per kilowatt hour (including tax, the same below); The power generation per ton of incoming waste is more than 280 kW
When, the rest of the electricity is subject to the on grid price of local similar coal-fired generator units (the current price is 0.4143 yuan per kilowatt hour,
Including desulfurization, denitration and dust removal (electricity price).
The income forecast of Hongcheng Kangheng is shown in the following table:
Future forecast (10000 yuan)
Project time \\ \\ March December 2021 2022 2023 2046 2047 June 2048
......
1、 Main business income 25369.21 30739.43 29354.77 23,402.16 22,348.01 10,752.34
1. Garbage cleaning income 8898.29 10781.90 10296.23 9,219.37 8,804.08 4,235.93
The amount of garbage entering the site is 827384.78 1002527.64 957368.74 857,239.37 818,624.98 393,866.74
Unit price 107.55 107.55 107.55 107.55 107.55 107.55
2. On grid power generation income 16470.92 19957.52 19058.54 14,182.79 13,543.93 6,516.42
Power generation: 158.626 million kwh 328,899,002.99 314,083,732.59 151,115,758.13
Benchmark electricity charge for tons of garbage entering the site 140.67 140.67 140.67 140.67 140.67 140.67
24.78 24.78 24.78 per ton of garbage entering the site 24.78 24.78 24.78
National electricity subsidy for tons of garbage entering the site 33.62 33.62 33.62
2、 Other business income 523.43 634.23 605.66 542.32 517.89 249.17
Slag income 523.43 634.23 605.66 542.32 517.89 249.17
3、 The total operating income is 25892.64 31373.66 29960.43 23,944.48 22,865.90 11,001.52
(II) rationality analysis of Hongcheng Kangheng's income
1. Rationality analysis of the amount of garbage entering the site
(1) Regional market situation
According to the Nanchang Municipal Development and reform commission entrusted Jiangxi Electric Power Design Institute to formulate the Nanchang municipal living garbage
The medium and long term special plan for waste incineration power generation (2018-2030) shows that by 2020, urban domestic waste
The harmless treatment rate is 100% and 80% in rural areas. The installed capacity of domestic waste incineration power generation reaches 84mw, with a daily treatment capacity of
The treatment capacity is 3600 tons, the annual waste treatment capacity is 1314000 tons, and the domestic waste incineration treatment reaches 68%.
To 2030
In, the harmless treatment rate of domestic waste reached 100%, the installed capacity of domestic waste incineration power generation reached 149mw, the daily treatment capacity was 6200 tons, the annual waste treatment capacity was 2.263 million tons, and the domestic waste incineration treatment reached 100%.
At present, there are maiyuan waste incineration plant and Quanling waste incineration plant in Nanchang waste incineration plant, with the planned treatment scale respectively
2400 T / D and 1200 T / d. In 2020, Nanchang's policy requires the realization of "zero landfill" of waste. At present
Nanchang waste incineration plant has maiyuan waste incineration plant and Quanling waste incineration plant, with a planned treatment capacity of 2400 tons respectively
/Days and 1200 tons / day. According to the garbage collection and transportation data provided by Nanchang Urban Management Bureau, the average garbage collection and transportation volume in 2021
It is 5000 tons / day. The waste treatment capacity of Nanchang cannot cover the total amount of waste collection and transportation, and the daily amount of waste entering the site is predicted
The full load operation in the first few years of the period is reasonable.
(2) Competitive market analysis
According to the analysis of the regional market where the enterprise is located, the zero landfill policy and environmental protection requirements are becoming higher and higher
Under the current situation, the landfill treatment plant has been preparing for closure, and has no waste treatment capacity. Main market-oriented competition
Xiang is Nanchang Quanling domestic waste incineration power plant. The project was put into operation in January 2015, and the treatment scope of the plant is advanced
Domestic garbage in Xianxian county and Nanchang County and some domestic garbage in Qingyunpu District have a designed capacity and daily incineration capacity
About 1200 tons. At present, Quanling domestic waste is preparing to build phase II, with a corresponding waste treatment capacity of 1800 tons / day and put into operation
The date is uncertain. After the project is put into operation, the overall waste disposal capacity of Quanling project will reach 3000 tons / day. From competitive market
From the perspective of market, the shortage of supply in the current market will gradually disappear after the Quanling project is put into operation, but considering
Considering the factors of waste transportation radius and transportation cost, the investment and expansion of the project have a relatively small impact on Hongcheng Kangheng
Small.
According to the franchise agreement of domestic waste incineration power generation project in Nanchang solid waste treatment circular economy industrial park
=In case of 24.528 million tons, the garbage disposal fee or the term of the franchise agreement shall be adjusted accordingly. Taking into account the declining production efficiency of enterprises' equipment and the competition in the above regional markets, and based on the principle of prudence, we believe that the predicted waste treatment capacity in the future will show a downward trend and remain within the total fixed waste treatment capacity specified in the BOT agreement.
2. Rationality analysis of unit price
(1) Determination of unit price
According to Article 49 (IV) of the franchise agreement for domestic waste incineration power generation project in Nanchang solid waste treatment circular economy industrial park, the unit price of waste treatment service fee is determined according to the total investment, operating costs and expenses of the project plus reasonable profits.
(2) Comparison of other major municipal solid waste incineration power generation projects
In recent years, the main municipal solid waste incineration power generation projects are as follows:
Project location project name investment amount treatment fee unit price treatment amount ton garbage investment remarks (100 million yuan / ton) (ton) (10000 yuan / ton)
Zhangjiakou Municipal solid waste incineration power generation PPP project 11.44 115.00 1800 63.56 including waste collection and transportation
Vein Industrial Park project of Qingdao West Coast new area, Qinghai 15.07 115.00 2250
