Event: listed insurance companies disclosed the original insurance premium income data in January 2022. In January, the original insurance premium income of life insurance of listed insurance enterprises were respectively: China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) 207.2 billion yuan, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) 103.7 billion yuan, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 55.9 billion yuan, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) 35.9 billion yuan, The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) 55.1 billion yuan. The total amount of A-share listed insurance enterprises was 457.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 0.4%; The original premium income of property insurance of listed insurance enterprises were: 60.4 billion yuan of China property insurance, 32.8 billion yuan of Ping An Property Insurance, 21 billion yuan of CPIC property insurance and 2 billion yuan of Zhong’an online. The total amount of listed insurance enterprises was 116.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 11.9%.
Comments:
Life insurance: the debt side of the industry has improved slowly. 1) The premium performance in January was differentiated, and the growth rate was lower than that in the same period in 2021. In January 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of life insurance premium income of listed insurance enterprises was The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) (+ 22.7%) > New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (+ 3.6%) > Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 0.8%) > China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (- 1.1%) > China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (- 5.3%). The The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) single premium increased the premium year-on-year this month, while the premium growth rate of other insurance companies except Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) was far lower than that in January 2021. The premium growth rate of industry leader China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) decreased by 18.5pct compared with the same period in 2021. 2) Life insurance has a “good start” and is weak. As we expect, the transformation of insurance companies’ business strategies makes the industry’s “good start” lack of driving force and dull performance, which also reflects that the pressure on the liability side of the industry has not been lifted. Consider ① the overall consumption downturn and suppress the insurance demand; ② The popularization of Pratt & Whitney insurance continues to squeeze out commercial insurance; ③ Slow channel transformation and increasingly strict supervision; ④ Restricted by multiple factors such as serious mismatch between product supply and demand, the space for premium improvement may still be limited in the short term.
Property insurance: premium growth is good and performance continues to pick up. 1) The premium performance in January was brilliant. In January 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of the original premium income of property insurance of listed insurance enterprises was China Property Insurance (+ 13.8%) > CPIC property insurance (+ 12.7%) > Zhong’an online (+ 12.4%) > Ping An Property Insurance (+ 8.2%). The premium growth momentum of traditional leading insurance enterprises is good, and continue to lead the market. 2) The growth of auto insurance premiums continued to recover, and non auto insurance maintained stable development. In January 2022, the premium income of China’s property insurance and automobile insurance was 27.6 billion yuan, an increase of 14.5% year-on-year. Since the monthly premium recovered to a positive increase, the growth rate has increased month by month; The non auto insurance business showed good growth sustainability as a whole, especially the accident health insurance sector continued to grow steadily. In January 2022, the premium income of China Property Insurance Italian health insurance was 16.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%.
There is still pressure on the short-term liability side, and the medium and long-term growth can be expected. Property insurance: auto insurance and non Auto Co frequency resonance, leading insurance companies continue to lead, and their advantages continue to expand. The growth of auto insurance premium income has been clearly restored, the non auto insurance premium has increased steadily, and the comprehensive cost rate of leading insurance enterprises is expected to continue to improve; In the medium and long term, the scale effect will be further strengthened. Industry leaders will further expand their profit space and strengthen competitive barriers by virtue of their advantages in channels, brands and services, so as to achieve a growth level better than the market under the condition of high premium base. Life insurance: the repair of the liability side is slow, and we are optimistic about the long-term development space. 2022 has made a good start, the power is obviously lacking, the supply and demand of the industry are mismatched, and the downturn on the liability side has not seen significant marginal improvement; In the long run, with the gradual reconstruction of the market and the increasing demand for health care, the industry will move towards a virtuous circle of development and growth, and the trend improvement is expected at both ends of assets and liabilities. As of February 17, 2022, the valuation of the sector is still hovering at a historical low, and the medium and long-term allocation value can be optimistic.
Investment suggestion: recommend [China Property Insurance]. As the industry leader, China’s property insurance has gradually expanded its competitiveness and steadily increased its market share, which will gain greater advantages in the industry pattern optimized by the comprehensive reform of auto insurance.
Risk tips: 1) the economic recovery is not as good as expected, restraining the demand for insurance; 2) The decline of long-term interest rate and the oscillation of equity market affect the investment side; 3) The transformation effect of insurance enterprises was less than expected.
