There is no unified standard for the supervision of pre-sale funds across the country. At present, there are three main modes. The current policy on the supervision of pre-sale funds can be traced back to the administrative measures for the pre-sale of urban commercial housing issued in 1994, which allows various regions to implement policies according to the city. At present, there are three main withdrawal methods: 1) some cities stipulate the amount of fund supervision as 10% ~ 40% of the total amount of advance receipts; 2) Some cities stipulate that the project cost will rise according to a certain proportion on the basis of the project cost; 3) In some cities, the regulatory limit of pre-sale funds is based on the construction cost per square meter.
“One city, one policy” has strong local autonomy, and the supervision has become stricter since the second half of 21 years. There are some problems, such as the slow pace of capital withdrawal and regulatory rules in different regions, resulting in large differences in the proportion of capital withdrawal and regulatory rules in some cities. Since the second half of 2021, under the background of ensuring completion and delivery, the supervision of pre-sale funds has become significantly stricter, which has further increased the capital pressure of enterprises when the financing demand is difficult to be met.
The supervision of pre-sale funds has changed from “one city, one policy” to national unification. Since the detailed rules have not been published, we can sum up several key points of the adjustment of regulatory measures from media reports: 1) the regulatory measures have changed from “one city, one policy” to a unified national standard. Due to different regulatory modes in different regions, the affected degree is different after the adjustment, and the funds previously over regulated will be released; 2) “Ensuring completion and delivery” is still the primary task. The adjustment specification of this supervision method is to correct the previous supervision problems, not to relax comprehensively. The effect of policy adjustment needs to be treated rationally; 3) After the regulatory model is standardized, the capital pressure of some private enterprises with large regulatory limit will be relieved.
Calculation of the expected impact of the new regulatory measures based on the perspective of total amount and company. In terms of the total amount, the maximum capital increment brought by the regulatory measures under the three modes is about 20%. The standardization of the national regulatory measures helps to alleviate the problem of capital shortage of enterprises to a certain extent. However, the maximum capital release calculated may not be equal to the capital increment brought by the actual implementation. From the perspective of the company, the “net debt ratio” in the “three red lines” is approximately measured by the measurable “debt equity ratio of interest bearing liabilities after deducting advance income less payable”. Under the three proportions, the balance sheet of private enterprises has the greatest improvement. When the supervision proportion is 10%, central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and enterprises with mixed ownership The adjusted debt equity ratio of private enterprises has reached less than 1.
Investment suggestion: at present, the fundamentals are still on the way down, and the prosperity is the worst in history. Under the main line of “stable growth”, the expectation of policy game is increasing, and the market interpretation path is gradually clear. In the early stage of policy easing, the market first looks for certainty, that is, central state-owned enterprises with smooth logic. With the continuous interpretation of policies, the market gradually moves from differences to consensus, The market has transitioned from central state-owned enterprises to private enterprises and property management companies. We believe that central, private and property enterprises have opportunities in the first and second quarters. At present, the industry policy support is gradually transitioning from the supply side to the demand side. The regulation and adjustment of pre-sale funds is the beginning of “stable growth”. The “urban implementation policies” in various places have been relaxed from provident fund loans to commercial loans, and the scope of policy easing has gradually spread. In the follow-up, we will continue to pay attention to the implementation of policies before and after the two sessions, the first batch of centralized land supply and the acquisition and merger of real estate enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading stocks in the high-quality housing development industry: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (00000 2), Poly Real Estate (600048), Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383), China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (001979), Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) (601155), Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) (000656); It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality property management companies: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) (001914), Xuhui Yongsheng service (1995. HK), Jinke service (9666. HK), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) (002968).
Risk tip: the risk of policy implementation falling short of expectations and sales decline exceeding expectations.
