Overall performance of mainland hotels in January: RevPAR increased year-on-year driven by average house price. In January 22, the occupancy rate of Chinese mainland hotels was 42.1%, which was down by 3.2pct compared with 21 in January and down by 17.7pct compared with 19 in January. The average house price was 400 yuan / night, an increase of 7.2% over January 21, and recovered to 87.4% in the same period of 19 years. RevPAR is 168 yuan / night. Although the rental rate has declined year-on-year, driven by the recovery of average house prices, RevPAR has increased by 3.7% compared with January 21 and recovered to 61.5% in the same period of 19 years.
Overall performance of medium and high-end hotels in mainland China in January: ADR recovery is weaker than the whole. In January 22, the occupancy rate of high-end hotels in Chinese mainland was 41.8%, slightly lower than the overall average level, which declined by 2.1pct compared with 21 in January, and declined by 15.0pct compared with 19 in January. The average house price was 317 yuan / night, an increase of 2.7% over January 21, and recovered to 76.6% in the same period of 19 years. The recovery was worse than the whole. RevPAR was 132 yuan / night. Driven by the year-on-year increase in average house prices, RevPAR increased slightly by 0.5% compared with January 21 and recovered to 56.3% in the same period of 19 years.
Conclusion: the fluctuation of the operating data of the mainland hotel industry is still highly related to the spread and recurrence of the epidemic. The occupancy rate was weak in January 22, while the average house price recovered well, driving the slight increase of RevPAR year-on-year. The RevPAR recovery of medium and high-end hotels is still not as good as the whole, which is mainly reflected in the weaker recovery of average house prices than the whole.
Investment suggestion: hotel performance is still greatly affected by the spread of the epidemic, but the overall supply and demand pattern is good, mainly reflected in the clearing of supply. In the months from April to July of 21, when the epidemic was less prevalent, RevPAR overall recovered to more than 80% in the same period of 19 years; With the impact of the epidemic on the supply of the hotel industry (especially single hotels), the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to improve. It has medium and long-term investment logic, including the opportunities for rapid store expansion and structural optimization brought by the improvement of supply and demand pattern and the improvement of chain rate. It is suggested to focus on Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group and Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) .
Risk factors: the impact of repeated epidemic on the tourism industry and the impact of macro-economy on the tourism industry.
