Events
On February 18, the real estate development sector rose significantly during the session, and individual stocks in the sector set off a wave of limit trading. Among them, Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) , Black Peony (Group) Co.Ltd(600510) , Macrolink Culturaltainment Development Co.Ltd(000620) , Chongqingyukaifaco.Ltd(000514) and so on rose one after another, Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) rose by 8.41%, and Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) and so on rose by more than 5%.
Comments
In addition to Heze, Shandong, some cities across the country have reduced the interest rate and down payment ratio of the first house loan, and some banks in Chongqing and Ganzhou have reduced the down payment ratio of the first house loan to 20%. A number of major banks in Heze, Shandong Province have reduced the down payment ratio of first home mortgage loans. Each bank carries out the down payment ratio of whether there is a house under its name, whether there is a housing loan record and whether the loan has been settled, and the down payment ratio is between 20% – 40%.
The positive signal released by this adjustment is more obvious, and all localities have responded positively. Activate residents’ reasonable housing consumption demand through various local policies. This time, Heze, Shandong, took the lead in reducing the down payment ratio of the first house mortgage, which plays a positive role in boosting the confidence of the whole market.
All cities in this round of adjustment are non “purchase restricted” cities, which are jointly decided by the local housing and financial functional departments according to the principle of implementing policies according to the city. From the perspective of the down payment ratio policy of real estate loans, the down payment decreased from 30% to 20% this time, which is to stimulate market demand and encourage residents to buy houses with loans.
From the perspective of the market, with the emergence of the end of the policy in December 2021, the bottom of market transactions has gradually emerged. Whether mortgage, M & a loan or indemnificatory rental housing loan, there has been strong positive feedback. It is expected that in the future, policies will be issued successively from the central to local governments to stimulate the substantial improvement of the market demand side, and gradually form a joint force of policies to form a stable and healthy upward space for the real estate industry, including improving the past excessive correction of non hot cities.
In terms of individual stocks, the leading real estate enterprises in the cities where the policy of reducing the down payment ratio of the first set of housing loans is implemented will benefit. The land development projects owned by Chongqingyukaifaco.Ltd(000514) are mainly concentrated in Chongqing. It is a leading real estate enterprise in Chongqing with the first-class qualification of real estate development enterprises issued by the Ministry of construction. If Chongqing implements the new policy of reducing the down payment ratio of the first set of housing loans to 20%, the company’s income expectation will increase, and there will be momentum to continue to rise in the future.
Since 2022, top-level policies have been issued continuously to stimulate the vitality of the real estate market. The double drop in LPR will help ease the pressure on the real estate market. The decline of LPR in the five-year period is a relaxation of the restraint of real estate regulation. This time, it is mainly aimed at the demand side. For just in need buyers, it may save loan costs, boost market confidence, stabilize and alleviate the pressure of the real estate market, help better meet the reasonable housing needs of residents, and better realize “real estate without speculation” and “common prosperity”.
The darkest period of the real estate industry has passed, and only by optimizing the financial structure can we make steady progress. Only by opening the channels of incremental financing can we improve the liquidity of enterprises. As a result, small and medium-sized enterprises will pay more attention to the development of the housing market and avoid the risk of being squeezed out of the market in time. The most important thing for an enterprise is to maintain a healthy and high-quality financial structure and leverage ratio within the enterprise, otherwise it will encounter the risk of stampede credit default again if it encounters strong supervision again.
Risk tips
Tip 1: real estate regulation is stronger than expected.
Tip 2: sales fell more than expected.
