\u3000\u3000 Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) (001215)
From missing and growing up in chain catering. The major shareholder of the company is Miss founder Li Wei. Different from Miss focus on C-end, the company focuses on catering enterprise services and provides quick-frozen rice flour products. The company serves large chain catering enterprises through direct operation mode, focusing on customized products. Direct business accounts for about 35%, of which China Yum accounts for about 70% of direct revenue; The company serves small B catering enterprises through dealers, mainly selling general products, accounting for 65%.
There is still much room for development in the catering end of quick-frozen rice flour products. China's quick-frozen rice flour products are mainly consumed by families, and the catering channels account for only 16%, which has room for further improvement compared with Japan (accounting for about 64%) with similar food culture. China's catering industry is still in the stage of rapid development. In order to meet the needs of its own chain and reduce operating costs, catering enterprises strengthen cooperation with upstream quick-frozen rice products enterprises, and realize the standardization and quality of catering by purchasing industrialized semi-finished quick-frozen products. The penetration rate of quick-frozen rice products in the catering industry has gradually increased. In addition, with the development of the industry, catering customers will be more and more strict in selecting suppliers. Manufacturers who have successfully entered the supplier list have the first mover advantage and scale advantage, and the advantage will become more and more prominent. Therefore, we believe that there is an increasing trend in the b-end market concentration of quick-frozen rice flour products.
Direct channels are expected to maintain stable growth. The company continues to provide new products for key customers and accelerate the coverage of the warehouse, so as to achieve growth, and has the ability to obtain incremental orders from key customers. In recent years, the company has accelerated the coverage of Haidilao and Wallace warehouses and new product research and development, and doubled its revenue. In addition, the penetration rate of Chinese chain catering continues to increase, and the company has great potential to develop new national chain and regional chain customers. With the existing excellent products, management and production experience and comprehensive service ability, we believe that the company is expected to seize the opportunity of the industry and grow.
Small B business is expected to maintain a high growth rate. The growth rate of the company's dealer channel income is high. The company's strong products fried dough sticks and sesame oil have obvious advantages and high cost performance. In the past two years, the company's penetration in the small b-end market has been continuously strengthened, but the strength of the company's dealers is still weak. In the future, the company will increase the cultivation of dealers. We speculate that with the gradual maturity of the company's distribution system, the company's small b-end business will maintain a high growth.
Mainly fried products, double channels and multiple categories bloom. According to the processing method, the company's products can be divided into four categories: frying, baking, cooking, dishes and others. Among them, frying accounts for more than 50%, which is the most important category in the distribution and direct marketing channels. The company opened the ceiling of fried products by developing personalized products applied to multiple scenes, making it have a high growth rate in both channels; Baking products are mainly sold through direct channels, but with the growth of residents' demand for baking products, the products have achieved high growth in small B channel and have great potential; The sales of cooking products account for about 20%, mainly through distribution channels, which is in line with the Chinese people's daily consumption habits. Small B has large demand and rapid growth; The proportion of dishes and other businesses is low, but the growth rate is high. With the company's layout of the hot pot material market, it is expected to maintain a high growth rate.
Profit forecast and rating: China's quick-frozen rice flour products have a large catering channel. The company has the ability to continuously obtain major customers, and the direct sales revenue can maintain a small double-digit growth. In addition, with the company's continuous deepening in the distribution mode, the company's distribution business is expected to continue to achieve high growth in the next three years. Many product varieties of the company have great advantages and potential in different channels. We expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 90 million, RMB 115 million and RMB 144 million respectively, and the corresponding EPS to be RMB 104, RMB 132 and RMB 166 respectively. The current share price corresponds to the PE values of 48, 38 and 30 times from 2021 to 2023 respectively, and is rated "strongly recommended" for the first time.
Risk tip: the epidemic has led to a decline in consumption capacity and demand, and the recovery of the catering industry is lower than expected; The business risks of the top three major customers indirectly affect the company's sales to major customers; Food safety risks, etc.
