\u3000\u3000 Bluestar Adisseo Company(600299) (600299)
Event: the company released the performance express of 2021, and it is expected to achieve a revenue of 12.869 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit is 1.484 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8%. Among them, Q4 is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.526 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 16% and a month on month increase of + 5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 221 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 13% and a month on month increase of - 49%.
Comments:
Sales growth made up for rising costs, and the company's performance improved steadily in 21 years: the company's main products are divided into functional products and special products. The sales of functional products liquid methionine and special products in 21 years increased by 23% and 12% respectively compared with 20 years, which has made an important contribution to the growth of the company's performance. The price of the company's main raw materials rose in the past 21 years. The average price of propylene was 7884 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 16%, the average price of methanol was 2669 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 44%, and the average price of sulfur was 1698 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 138%. The increase in sales of liquid methionine and special products, as well as the company's proactive product price management, agile and rapid product supply and continuous operation efficiency improvement plan, partially offset the adverse impact of the sharp rise in raw material and energy costs in 21 years.
Methionine production capacity continues to expand and industry leading advantages continue to strengthen: the company is a leading liquid methionine manufacturer in the world, and the market share of methionine ranks second in the world. The company's phase II project of Nanjing liquid methionine plant with an annual capacity of 180000 tons is progressing smoothly. The civil works and more than 99% of the construction works of the project have been completed and have entered the pre commissioning stage. The trial operation is expected to be carried out in the second half of 2022. After the new production capacity is put into operation, it is expected to significantly increase the company's profits and further enhance the company's leading edge in the methionine industry.
The revenue of special products achieved double-digit growth, and the second business pillar accelerated development: in 21 years, the company's special products business performed prominently, realizing an operating revenue of 3.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Among them, the sales of ruminant products increased by 15%, the sales of global palatable products increased by 11%, and the sales of aquatic products increased by 13%. In order to develop the second business pillar, the company launched the capacity expansion and optimization project of European special products at the end of 21, and continuously optimized the production layout. The "China integration strategy" proposed by the company in 2020 is also advancing steadily. The capacity expansion project of China's special products has entered the basic engineering design stage in December 21 and is expected to be put into trial operation in 23 years; The new China R & D and innovation center in Nanjing has been put into operation at the beginning of 22 years; Kaidisu, a joint venture between the company and Kellers, is steadily advancing Feikang ® The first large-scale production unit project of innovative protein products. At present, 87% of the construction works of the project have been completed, and it is expected to start sales at the end of 22 years. The company's active development of special product business will accelerate the development of the second business pillar. Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering the adverse impact of the sharp rise in raw material costs and energy costs of main products, the company's performance in 21 years was lower than expected. We believe that raw material prices and energy costs may continue to remain high, which will have an impact on the company's profitability in 22 and 23 years. Therefore, we reduce the profit forecast for 22-23 years. It is estimated that the company's net profit in 22-23 years will be 16.20 (24%) / 1.784 (23%) billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.60/0.67 yuan / share respectively. As a global leader in animal nutrition and health industry, we continue to be optimistic about its future development, so we maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the downstream demand of aquaculture industry becomes weak; Methionine production capacity launch schedule did not meet expectations; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The project progress of special products is less than expected; Exchange rate fluctuations.
