\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) (603063)
Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) : provider of power conversion and control solutions. The company focuses on the field of electric energy conversion, covering the field of new energy power generation and electrical transmission. Its main products include wind power converter, photovoltaic inverter and electrical transmission products, as well as energy storage and power quality products.
Wind power converter: China's leading independent converter manufacturer. Under the background of "double carbon", the prospect of wind power is broad, and the parity era is periodically weakened. In 2021, China's offshore wind power suddenly emerged, with an additional installed capacity of 16.9gw throughout the year. According to our calculation, the market scale of China's wind power converter will reach 7.29 billion yuan in 2025, and the market scale will exceed 30 billion yuan during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The company is a leading supplier of independent third-party wind power converters, with a wide range of downstream customers. In 2020, Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) wind turbine generator brands with large supporting proportion of converter include: Yunda wind power, Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , China haizhuang, Sany Heavy energy, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited(601727) etc., and the market share is about 16.7% according to the installed power caliber.
Photovoltaic inverter: products break through and enter overseas. The global PV installed capacity has repeatedly broken new highs, and the global installed capacity in 22 years is expected to exceed 220gw. Distributed photovoltaic promotes the construction of superimposed scenery base in the whole county, and the demand side is worry free. Looking forward to 2022, the large-scale production capacity of China's leading silicon enterprises will be released one after another, and the upstream price is expected to decline, so as to open the end demand market. According to our calculation, the global photovoltaic inverter market space is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025. The company won the 9th place in the list of top 20 photovoltaic inverter enterprises in China in 2021, and achieved global shipments of 2019mw in 2020. At present, the company adopts both distributed and series schemes to vigorously layout the distributed photovoltaic power generation system and actively expand the overseas market. On December 15, 2021, the company signed the 2022 photovoltaic 100MW strategic cooperation framework agreement with isbrasil, a well-known new energy enterprise in Brazil.
Power conversion product line: multidimensional layout of five products. The company takes its power electronics technology platform as the core and widely expands multiple product lines. In the field of electrical transmission, it has independently developed hd2000 series low-voltage engineering frequency converter, hd8000 series medium voltage multi-level frequency converter and HV500 Series High-Performance frequency converter; In the field of energy storage, provide competitive overall solutions for common AC or DC energy storage systems. Specific products include energy storage converters (PCS), energy management systems (EMS), STS switching devices, complete sets of energy storage systems and other products. At the same time, the company also covers SVG, wind power generation supporting products, new energy vehicle charging products, etc.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we estimate that the company's operating revenue in 2021-23 will be RMB 1.836/2.922/3.908 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 240/4.39/585 million respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.55/1.01/1.34. The current share price corresponds to 68 / 37 / 28 times of PE in 21-23 years respectively. Referring to the results of relative valuation and absolute valuation, considering the competitiveness of the company's wind power converter business, the smooth expansion of photovoltaic inverter business, the layout of electrical transmission and energy storage business and broad application prospects, the company is given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk warning: the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic is less than expected; Overseas market expansion is less than expected; The risk of declining profits due to increased competition.
