Events
According to Reuters on February 11, techcet, a US electronic materials market research company, pointed out that more than 90% of the supply of semiconductor grade neon in the United States comes from Ukraine and 35% of palladium comes from Russia, which has related semiconductor material supply chain security problems. U.S. National Security Council officials urged U.S. chip companies to find alternative sources of these materials.
Commentary
Neon gas is the main component of lithography gas. More than 90% of semiconductor grade neon gas supply in the United States comes from Ukraine (produced in Russia and purified in Ukraine). Common lithographic gases include argon / fluorine / neon mixture, krypton / neon mixture, argon / neon mixture, argon / xenon / neon mixture, etc. Most of the lithography gas is a mixture of rare gas and fluorine, which forms a plasma after being excited at high pressure. In this process, due to electronic transition, light with fixed wavelength will be generated. The excited light will produce the light source of the lithography machine after polymerization, filtering and other processes. According to xinzhixun, Ukraine supplies about 70% of the world's neon gas and about 40% of the world's krypton gas and 30% of the world's xenon gas. In the semiconductor process, neon gas can be used for KrF and ArF laser exposure. In the argon / fluorine / neon gas used in ArF excimer laser, neon gas accounts for more than 96% of the laser gas mixture. Krypton gas is also used in lithography; Xenon is used in semiconductor etching process. According to the US Trade Commission (ITC), neon prices rose by 600% during the tense period of Crimea Peninsula in 2014. At present, according to the price tracking data of Baichuan Yingfu, the price of neon gas (content 99.99%) in China has increased from 400 yuan / m3 in October 2021 to more than 1600 yuan / m3 at present. We believe that if there are supply risks related to neon, krypton and xenon in the future, it will take more than half a year for downstream wafer factories to seek alternative suppliers, which will face new short-term risk.
China Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) can supply lithography gas, Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) supply krypton neon mixture, fluorine neon mixture and other gases for lithography; Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) supply relevant rare gases, such as neon, krypton, xenon and mixed gases. If the supply of neon and krypton in Ukraine is blocked, China Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) is expected to benefit.
Palladium is a key material in aerospace, nuclear energy and automobile manufacturing. It is often used in the back packaging in semiconductors. Palladium is one of the rarest precious metals in the world. Only a few countries such as Russia and South Africa produce palladium in the world. Palladium is used in the manufacture of sensors and memories in semiconductors and as an electroplating material for some packaging technologies. In copper wire bonding technology, in order to prevent copper wire oxidation, the copper surface will be coated with a layer of inert metal palladium.
China Ningbo Kangqiang Electronics Co.Ltd(002119) supplies electroplating wire for semiconductor packaging; Upstream high-purity palladium suppliers mainly include Sino-Platinum Metals Co.Ltd(600459) , Nanfang Zhongjin Environment Co.Ltd(300145) and other companies, but their products are mainly used in automobile exhaust catalysts, renewable resource materials and so on.
Investment advice
Geopolitical risk may affect the supply of semiconductor materials. According to the analysis of the National Semiconductor Group, the US / European 8 inch / 12 inch wafer fab is more likely to be affected by the Chinese Mainland / Taiwan, Korea and Japan. On the contrary, it has the opportunity to benefit from the improvement of market share in the short term. Meanwhile, China's relevant lithography gas suppliers Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) are expected to benefit.
Risk tips
Geopolitical risks; Risk of production interruption of relevant semiconductor materials; Chinese mainland and other non related countries and regions supply chain risks.
