Report guide
Baijiu sector: the current position is the first to push Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) and Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) .
Food sector: in the current market environment of correction of overvalued value, the importance of the main line of steady growth is further highlighted. It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of leading dairy enterprises and first promote Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) .
February 7th ~2 11, 5 trading days, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.82%, food and beverage sector rose 0.31%, Baijiu sector rose less than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 0.35%. Specifically, the increase of Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (+ 13.75%) and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (+ 9.07%) in the beverage sector this week was relatively large, and the decrease of Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) (- 11.54%) and Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) (- 4.37%) was relatively large; This week, the increase of Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) (+ 13.14%) and Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (+ 9.84%) in the food sector was relatively the top, while the increase of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (- 12.04%) and Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) (- 10.45%) were relatively the bottom.
This week’s view
[Baijiu sector]: Based on the Spring Festival dynamic sales expectations, Emblem Wine Wine performance this week is excellent.
Plate review: Hui liquor and Su liquor performed well this week, basically facing the good trend
February 7th ~2 11, 5 trading days, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.82%, food and beverage sector rose 0.31%, Baijiu sector rose less than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 0.35%. Specific Baijiu sector: 1) sector view: on Wednesday, there was a sharp downward trend in the sector, or a high degree of correlation with the market environment (A shares fell significantly, with higher valuations & a bigger decline in growth style, while undervalued and stable growth sectors showed strong resilience, and the overall market sentiment was low under the background of a slight depreciation of the RMB exchange rate). Basically, the good trend remains unchanged; From Thursday to Friday, the overall performance of the sector is better; 2) In terms of individual stocks, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (+ 13.75%), Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (+ 9.07%) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (+ 8.46%) were among the top gainers, and both Hui liquor and Su liquor showed strong performance. The main reasons are as follows: 1) from a fundamental point of view: during the Spring Festival, Anhui and Zhejiang were provinces that met the requirements of “increased return rate + good economic environment + little impact of the epidemic”, so the feedback of mobile sales was generally good, Among them, Anhui benefited from this year’s epidemic prevention efforts, which significantly increased the return rate compared with the same period last year. The growth rate of overall dynamic sales was particularly bright. Under the strong dynamic sales, the demand for terminal inventory replenishment of Hui liquor and Su liquor was strong, and then the growth certainty of 22q2 performance was high & the development potential appeared; 2) From the perspective of sentiment: at present, the overall market fluctuates greatly, so investors prefer the subject matter of “high growth & strong certainty & having the nature of exceeding expectations”. Therefore, the stock price performance of Huijiu and sujiu may continue in the short term.
After the festival, a number of liquor enterprises held deployment meetings, with “high-end” and “stable and far-reaching” as the general direction
According to media reports, this week Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (bamboo leaf green), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and other liquor enterprises held meetings one after another, and gave guidance on the general direction of development in 2022. “High end” and “steady and long-term” are still the main tone——
1) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : on February 7, Zhuyeqing Industry Co., Ltd. held the 2022 marketing expedition meeting of “Zhigui Gaoyuan bamboo dream new expedition”. At the meeting, it was pointed out that Qingxiang high-end series should “control the high-end panel and penetrate the circle”, take the circle as the core, radiate the circle of other key markets in China from the top circle of first tier cities, and break the restrictions of administrative regions, Achieve penetrating strike from high to low; Glory series should “control the overall volume and hit the low with the high” to ensure the healthy development of the market, and achieve a breakthrough through the “high-low cooperation + action landing” of traditional channels; Classic series should “segment the market and restore value”. First, resolutely stop the production of 45 degree glass bamboo with old packaging; Second, characteristic specifications meet the needs of market segments; Third, establish the benchmark of the value of old wine through the operation of old wine auction and collection.
2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : on February 8, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group held the first (expanded) study meeting of the theoretical learning center group of the Party committee in 2022. Li Shuguang stressed that in the key year for the company to advance into the world’s top 500, the company should maintain a sense of urgency, crisis and benchmarking awareness, ensure the stability and long-term development of the main industry of the wine industry, do a good job in the transformation and upgrading of diversified industries, deepen reform and achieve key breakthroughs.
3) Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) : on February 8, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) annual work conference was held. Zhang Liandong pointed out that Yanghe brand highlighted “high”, Shuanggou brand highlighted “good”, expensive wine brand highlighted “fast”, lihuacun brand highlighted “excellent”, wine highlighted “quasi”, e-commerce business highlighted “new”, international business highlighted “special”, and customized marketing highlighted “deep”.
4) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : on February 9, Maotai Group held the Fourth Party committee (expanded) meeting in 2022. The meeting pointed out that during the Spring Festival, the sales momentum of Maotai liquor was good, the price remained stable, and the market showed a strong sales trend; The sales of Maotai Maotai flavor liquor series increased significantly; The group’s wine, blueberry wine, health wine and other products successfully occupied the “double festival” node and achieved a “good start” in 2022.
5) Guizhou Province will continue to promote the development of small and medium-sized Liquor Enterprises: on February 9, Guizhou daily published the report on the implementation of Guizhou’s 2021 national economic and social development plan and the draft 2022 national economic and social development plan. The report shows that in 2022, Chishui will strengthen the control and protection of the ecological environment in the production area of the Chishui River Basin. In accordance with the “three batch”, the transformation of the small and Medium wine enterprises will be promoted. The Guizhou Baijiu flavor liquor brand fleet, which is led by the Moutai, will be built to ensure that the added value of the Baijiu industry has increased by more than 20%.
February gold stocks: Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) – undervalued value + three major expected differences appear, which has high cost performance
In one sentence, the recommendation logic: the underrated Suzhou liquor leader with poor expectations, and the performance or exceeding expectations brought by structural upgrading, reform dividend and expansion speed outside the province
Expectation difference: the market is worried about whether m3, sky blue and sea blue can be upgraded successfully. We believe that: 1) there is strong certainty at the collection end: Yanghe’s revenue growth rate may exceed 25% in 2022, Q1 has completed or reached 55% of the annual task, and the proportion of Shuanggou’s Spring Festival payment has reached 50% of the annual task; 2) Dynamic sales end: at present, while the price of crystal dream is basically the same as that of Sikai, high channel profits + rich channel actions lead to structural upgrading exceeding expectations and sales exceeding expectations (during the Spring Festival, Yanghe consumer promotion is upgraded and the price is stable), and the upgraded version of haizhilan is expected to be launched at an accelerated speed.
Poor expectation: the market is worried about the expansion and growth of markets outside the province. We believe that the development of markets outside Yanghe province exceeds expectations or opens up long-term imagination. With the mature Baijiu area entering the “zero sum game” stage, the development of the market outside the province is the key to steady growth. In the past 21 years, with the upgrading of various products and the adjustment of regional managers, we have observed that Henan and Anhui have resumed their growth trend, Shandong, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Hubei have high growth performance, and the growth rate of market expansion outside the province may exceed expectations.
Poor expectation: the market is worried about the target achievement rate and quality after the adjustment of the company’s management. We believe that the market reform measures of the new management are positive and the brand resilience is underestimated. Since the new chairman took office in 21 years, the channel adjustment has been basically completed, the salary reform and equity incentive have been implemented, and the independent development of Shuanggou and expensive wine brands has achieved continuous high growth.
At present, the channel profit has increased, the price is stable, the inventory is benign in January and may, the team enthusiasm has improved significantly, and the reform dividend is expected to be released in 22 years.
Data update: the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rating performance this week is stable and the overall inventory performance is healthy
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the wholesale price of Feitian bulk bottle is about 2750 yuan, and the whole box is about 3150 yuan. The wholesale price drops slightly (normal fluctuation). The price of series wine and non-standard wine increases + the release of new 1935 + the launch of Chinese Zodiac wine earlier than last year + the dealers can implement the unplanned quota of non-standard products will contribute to the ton price of one quarter; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the approval price this week is stable at 970-980 yuan. Since the price increase of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , contracts for the coming year are being signed successively. It is expected that the payment will be collected by 40% before the Spring Festival, the delivery proportion will be 30% +, and the inventory will be healthy; Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the rated price is about 920-930 yuan. The payment collection of Guojiao in 21 years has been completed (+ 35%), and the growth target of Guojiao next year is 30%. The overall performance of the rated price is stable; About 40% of the new 1952 collection.
Investment suggestions: it is recommended to pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304)
After the initial callback, the current Baijiu valuation has been in a reasonable interval. Based on the three main differences between the industry fundamentals and the Spring Festival observation, we believe that we need to grasp short-term catalysis and dynamic marketing. Pre judgment of inventory status (determine 22q2 performance) + payment and collection progress (determine 22q1 performance) + long-term development direction to select the target – it is recommended to pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) .
II. [food sector]:
Sector review: the food sector rose slightly this week
Plate growth: food processing sector rose 1.55%, of which seasoning sector rose 0.66%, dairy sector rose 3.76%, meat sector rose 1.42%.
In terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks: Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) (+ 13.14%), Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (+ 9.84%) and St Cody (+ 9.54%) ranked among the top three in the sector. In the meat products sector, Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) (+ 3.26%), Shanghai Maling Aquarius Co.Ltd(600073) (+ 2.96%) and Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) (+ 2.42%) led the gains; In the condiment sector, Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (+ 9.84%), Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) (+ 6.02%) and Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) (+ 5.54%) increased significantly; In the dairy sector, St Cody (+ 9.54%), Beingmate Co.Ltd(002570) (+ 6.65%) and Beijing Sanyuan Foods Co.Ltd(600429) (+ 6.10%) led the rise; In the comprehensive food sector, Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) (+ 13.14%) led the rise, while Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (+ 6.73%) and Huabao Flavours & Fragrances Co.Ltd(300741) (+ 6.20%) increased significantly.
Update this week: rest food sector Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , catering sector Parkson China
Dairy products: there is a strong demand in the Spring Festival. It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of leading dairy enterprises
1) income: the liquid milk data in January is bright, and the liquid milk income of leading dairy enterprises in January may increase by 25% year-on-year. Considering the objective factor of early spring festival, the growth rate of liquid milk income of leading dairy enterprises in January and February may be 15%. Generally speaking, it belongs to the relatively strong demand of the Spring Festival in history.
2) cost: under the weak competition, the leader can reduce the cost input, and we judge that there is still room for further compression in the future.
3) inventory: at present, the average channel inventory of leading dairy enterprises is 22-23 days, which is in a normal and reasonable state.
Leisure snacks: the data is still recovering, continue to track and wait for the opportunity
This week, we updated our views on the terminal dynamic sales of three leisure snack companies Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) and the sales during the Spring Festival:
1) during the Spring Festival, the overall passenger flow of supermarkets has warmed up, but the passenger flow and data of supermarkets are still recovering. The sinking channel and snack system have performed well recently, and the sales performance of gift box products is good due to the influence of Spring Festival.
2) the dealer’s channel inventory is basically at a good level in the industry, and the overall dynamic sales in January are good. For example, the sales growth rate of Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) in a certain area in January was 10%, and the sales growth rate of Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) in a certain area in December + January was about 20%.
3) we believe that the terminals in the leisure and snack sector are still in the process of continuous recovery, in which we should focus on tracking the new products and the changes of mobile sales of the terminals to seek opportunities. For example, track the new products and investment promotion of Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) to be launched soon; Track the sales of Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) quantitative and bulk large single products; And the performance of Qia Guokui and nut gift box.
Yum International: performance in 2021
In 2001, the company achieved a revenue of 9.85 billion US dollars, about 62.665 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%; The adjusted operating profit was US $766 million, about RMB 4.873 billion, an increase of 5% at the same time. System sales increased by 10% year-on-year; Same store sales fell 1% year-on-year.
2kfc new restaurants hit a new high, and Pizza Hut accelerated the pace of store exhibition. In 2021, KFC set a new record of 1806 restaurants. Excluding the closed stores, 1282 new restaurants were added, and the total number of stores reached 8168. Benefiting from the recovery of store operation data, pizza hut has accelerated the pace of exhibition stores. 335 new stores were opened in 2021, a new high since 2016, with a total of 2590 stores.
3 stable store return period is the basis of expansion. At present, the average investment payback period of KFC is still stable within 2 years; Pizza Hut’s payback period has an obvious improvement trend, shortened from 3-4 years to 2-3 years. Under the influence of the epidemic, the new stores opened in the first half of 2021 still performed well, and most restaurants made ends meet a few months before opening.
4. The downward trend of the low line is obvious, and the high line increases the density of stores. In 2021, more than half of KFC’s new restaurants were opened in low-level cities, of which 160 cities were settled for the first time. At the same time, improve the distribution density of stores in high-speed cities, shorten the distribution distance, optimize the performance cost and improve the consumer experience.
52022 store expansion Prospect: facing the sinking market opportunity, the company plans to add about 1000-1200 new stores in 2022.
62022 capital expenditure Outlook: the company will increase investment in supply chain, infrastructure and digitization to promote the long-term sustainable development of business. The capital expenditure in 2022 is expected to be between us $800 million and US $1 billion, about RMB 5.09-6.362 billion.
Investment suggestions: it is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of leading dairy enterprises and continue to pay attention to the target of marginal performance improvement
We believe that the leading dairy enterprises have achieved double-digit growth in annual revenue, and the profit margin has increased by 0.5pct. The certainty of the guidelines is expected to continue to be fulfilled. In the current market environment of correction of overvalued value, the importance of the main line of steady growth is further highlighted. It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of leading dairy enterprises and first promote Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) . At the same time, in view of the current performance of the food sector, we recommend three main investment lines.
1) main line of investment in food and catering Industrialization: it is recommended to pay continuous attention to: Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) and other standards. 2) Valuation adjustments have been gradually put in place and new businesses have increased α， It is suggested to pay continuous attention to: Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) ; 3) Investment target with price increase logic.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations; Baijiu sales recovered less than expected. Food safety risks.
