Event: according to China Central Television News Network, Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council on February 14 to determine measures to promote the steady growth of industrial economy and the relief and development of industries with special difficulties in the service industry.
The meeting pointed out that industry and service industry are the backbone support for economic development and stable employment. At present, the stable recovery trend of industrial economy is still not firm, and there are some special difficult industries in the service industry due to the impact of the epidemic. In the near future, we should speed up the introduction of measures to increase assistance. Among them, fourth, for catering, retail, tourism, transportation and passenger transport and other industries with special difficulties, increase phased tax relief, partial social security fee deferment and other support to promote stable employment and consumption recovery. In 2022, public transport services such as public transport, long-distance passenger transport, ferry and taxi will be exempted from value-added tax. For small and micro enterprises in the service industry and individual industrial and commercial households renting state-owned houses, this year’s rent will be reduced for six months in areas classified as medium and high risk areas of the epidemic, and for three months in other areas. All localities provide assistance to small and micro enterprises in the service industry and individual industrial and commercial households renting non-state-owned houses.
In this regard, our comments are as follows: 1) the state will pay close attention to the rescue of the epidemic stricken industries, and the service industry is expected to usher in a turnaround. With the support of a series of policies such as tax relief, loan preference, deferred payment of social security fees and rent relief, especially poor enterprises in catering, retail, tourism and other service industries are expected to reduce operating pressure and usher in a reversal of difficulties. 2) In contrast, after the SARS epidemic in 2003, the state has implemented a series of supportive policies for the life service industry. It is expected that similar relief policies will be gradually introduced in 2022. In 2003, a number of measures, including tax relief, financial subsidies, loan concessions, recovery initiatives and seminars, were taken for civil aviation, tourism, catering, commerce, taxi and other industries that were greatly affected. Therefore, it can be reasonably expected that in 2022, with the relaxation of epidemic prevention, further supportive policies are expected to be introduced one after another, So as to stimulate the market from both sides of supply and demand and accelerate the recovery.
Continue to reiterate our view: 1) 2022 is the year of bottom reversal of tourism and catering related consumption. The path of high probability liberalization is first China and then the country. The liberalization of China’s travel is in progress. The liberalization of the country is in the designated road map. There are expected to be three policy window periods in 2022, namely, after the Winter Olympics, after the two sessions and after the 20th National Congress; 2) The downgrade of global epidemic control will form a systematic impact on the overall consumption sector β， The profit exposure of demand recovery and cost reduction expanded to strengthen the value of consumption allocation; 3) The expectation of the capital market has been formed. Vacation is better than business, and the long-term is better than the surrounding.
Plate and suggestions:
\u3000\u30001. Tax exempt [ China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ] [ Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) ];
\u3000\u30002. Hotel [ Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) ] [ Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ] [ Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ] [Huazhu group];
\u3000\u30003. The theme park of the destination [Haichang Ocean Park] [Fosun travel culture], the scenic spot of the destination [ China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) ] [ Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) ] [ Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) ] [ Emei Shan Tourism Company Limited(000888) ] [ Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) ], etc;
\u3000\u30004. OTA [Ctrip] [Tongcheng Yilong];
\u3000\u30005. Catering chain catering and supply chain [jiumaojiu] [hailun company] [Haidilao] [ Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) ] [Yihai international]; On site tea and supply chain of catering [Naixue’s tea] [ Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) ] [ Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) ] [ Namchow Food Group( Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) ] [ Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) ]; Prefabricated dishes for catering [ Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) ] [ Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ];
\u3000\u30006. Outbound travel [ Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) ];
\u3000\u30007. Airport Airlines [ Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) ] [ Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) ] [Meilan Airport] [ China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) ] [ Air China Limited(601111) ] [ China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) ];
\u3000\u30008. Pay special attention to the value of consumption sector allocation.
Risk warning: the recovery of the epidemic situation is not as expected; Strengthen epidemic prevention and control and increase risk; Downside risks of macro consumption; Market competition risk, etc.
