Event comments
Premier Li Keqiang held an executive meeting of the State Council on February 14. The meeting pointed out that the service industry has some special difficulties due to the impact of the epidemic and other industries. In the near future, we should speed up the introduction of measures and strengthen assistance. Among them, it is mentioned to increase the reduction and exemption of income tax in industry and service industry; For catering, retail, tourism, transportation and passenger transport and other industries with special difficulties, we will increase support in phased tax relief and partial social security fee deferment, so as to promote stable employment and consumption recovery. In 2022, public transport services such as public transport, long-distance passenger transport, ferry and taxi will be exempted from value-added tax. We believe that with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the consumption scene of tourism, catering, retail and other industries has gradually recovered, and the prosperity has continued to improve. At present, the starting point of the recovery trend of the industry is coming. At this time, the state’s assistance policies for industries greatly impacted by the epidemic will help promote the further recovery of the prosperity of relevant industries, and the performance of relevant industries is expected to show a trend of accelerating recovery.
At present, the national policy support for tourism and tourism related industries is more obvious, and the recovery trend of tourism and related industries such as catering, hotel and tax exemption is clear. The release of the tourism development plan of the 14th five year plan has provided important support for the recovery of the prosperity of the tourism industry and related sub industries such as tax exemption. The plan requires innovation and improvement of China’s tourism under the condition of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, step-by-step and orderly development of inbound and outbound tourism under the premise of effective control of the international epidemic, and clearly release the signal to help the recovery of tourism. The Spring Festival travel data also reflects the recovery of the recovery process of the tourism industry. After the repeated impact of the epidemic in the second half of 2021, the recovery process of the tourism industry was once blocked, and the recovery rhythm of the Spring Festival in 2022 began to pick up gradually. At the same time, new trends such as peripheral tourism, ice and snow tourism and parent-child tourism constitute the current mainstream forms of travel. The continuous improvement of the epidemic situation and the improvement of the tourism landscape are expected to lead to the continuous recovery of passenger flow in airports and other industries, and help the continuous repair of consumption scenes in catering, hotels and other industries.
The tax-free Spring Festival on outlying islands has performed well. In the future, with the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation, China’s tax-free industry is expected to show sustained high-speed growth supported by the return of consumption, the recovery of industry prosperity and the continuous upgrading of its own products and service quality. During the Spring Festival, the duty-free market of Hainan outlying islands is active, and consumers’ enthusiasm for duty-free shopping is high. According to the Hainan Daily, as of February 13, the total sales of 10 duty-free shops on Hainan’s outlying islands in 2022 were 9.954 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%. Among them, the tax-free sales volume was 9.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74%; The number of duty-free shoppers was 1605800, a year-on-year increase of 68%; The number of duty-free purchases was 9.5992 million, an increase of 89% year-on-year. During the golden week of the Spring Festival in the year of the tiger (from January 31, 2022 to February 6, 2022), the total sales of duty-free shops on outlying islands in the province reached 1.983 billion yuan, close to 20% of the total tax-free sales as of February 13. The golden week of the spring Festival has brought rapid growth to the tax-free performance of outlying islands in Hainan. Ten outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan have launched a number of measures in the Spring Festival to meet the market demand from the aspects of new products, theme activities and preferential promotion. The joint efforts of both supply and demand have brought the bright performance of Hainan outlying island duty-free. The “good start” at the beginning of 2022 has made a good start for Hainan Province to achieve the sales target of 100 billion yuan in the whole year.
Investment advice
With policy support and the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation, we believe that tourism and related industries such as duty-free, hotels and catering are expected to accelerate the recovery. The lowest point of the industry has passed. At present, it may be regarded as the starting point of the overall recovery trend of the industry, and the recovery of prosperity in the future is full of power. Relevant key targets include: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) . Other related targets include: Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , submarine fishing, etc.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic impact; Macroeconomic fluctuations; Policy fluctuation risk.
