Event: Premier Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council on February 14. On the one hand, the meeting once again strengthened the backbone supporting role of industry and service industry in economic development and stable employment. On the other hand, it pointed out that relief and development measures should be taken to stabilize the industrial economy with weak recovery trend and the service industry with special difficulties affected by the epidemic, Increase assistance.
Income tax, rent, social security and other deductions to help enterprises bail out and develop. The specific contents of the meeting include: 1) increase the reduction and exemption of income tax in industry and service industry, extend the tax relief policy for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in manufacturing industry, and expand the scope of application of the local “six taxes and two fees” reduction and exemption policy to all small low profit enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households; Specifically, for new equipment and appliances purchased by small, medium-sized and micro enterprises with a value of more than 5 million yuan this year, one-time pre tax deduction can be made if the depreciation is 3 years, and half deduction can be made if the depreciation is 4, 5 and 10 years. 2) For catering, retail, tourism, transportation and passenger transport and other industries with special difficulties, we will increase their support in phased tax relief and partial social security fee deferment, so as to promote stable employment and consumption recovery. In 2022, the value-added tax on public transport services will be exempted, and the deposit for tourism service quality will continue to be refunded at the proportion of 80%. 3) For small and micro enterprises in the service industry and individual industrial and commercial households renting state-owned houses, this year’s rent will be reduced for six months in areas classified as medium and high risk areas of the epidemic, and for three months in other areas. 4) Give appropriate assistance to small and micro enterprises in the service industry and individual industrial and commercial households renting non-state-owned houses; For the house owners whose rents are reduced or exempted, the house property tax and urban land use tax of this year shall be reduced or exempted according to the regulations.
The epidemic situation has been disturbed repeatedly. The leader’s previous performance is better than that of the industry. Many policies have been issued, and the retail and service industry is expected to continue to recover. After the large-scale epidemic outbreak in Wuhan was controlled in 2020, the phased small-scale epidemic continued to exist, which disturbed the recovery of consumption. However, the leaders of hotels, catering and tea, and optional chain sectors previously performed better than the industry, and even expanded against the trend, reflecting their good ability. Recently, many policies have been issued frequently, from the tourism development plan of the 14th five year plan to the approval of Pfizer’s conditions for small molecule drugs, showing the intention. The subsequent landing degree is worthy of attention, and the retail and service industry is expected to continue to recover.
Investment suggestion: since 2021, under the disturbance of the epidemic, the fundamentals of the social service retail sector have been affected to a certain extent. Although the leader also faces challenges, it has responded actively as a whole and has always demonstrated stronger ability; From the perspective of spin off, medium and high-end channels and categories are more stable and cost-effective for mass consumption. Looking back, it is expected that the low point of consumption growth will be consolidated, the recovery from fluctuations will still be the main melody, and the contribution of price increase is expected to increase. It is suggested to focus on the long-term growth certainty and the layout of high-quality and repair targets: 1) the catering and hotel sector is the first to be promoted. The leader has long-term growth and is expected to continue to recover. It is recommended to focus on Helen’s, jiumaojiu, Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , Huazhu Hotel, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) . Among them, the repair beta of the catering industry has not been fully realized, and individual stocks have the ability to grow; 2) The current focus of high-quality group recommendation is still good; 3) It is suggested to pay attention to the leading segments Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Naixue tea, Kidswant Children Products Co.Ltd(301078) , Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) with relatively reasonable valuation and certain expansion capacity, which are expected to be further repaired in the future.
Risk tip: the overall consumer demand is weak or the epidemic breaks out again on a small scale; Industry competition has intensified significantly; The expansion of leading enterprises is less than expected; The investment in marketing, innovation and Exhibition stores of listed companies has increased significantly.
