Core view
The flat wire of motor brings a new round of technical iteration, and the increase of the proportion of dual motors will further stimulate the demand of the industry. Due to the increased requirements of terminal brand models, the threshold of driving motor has been greatly increased in recent years. Compared with the traditional round wire, the flat wire motor has greatly improved the power density, resulting in the miniaturization of motor volume, less demand for raw materials and lower cost. The development trend of motor from round wire to flat wire has been established. Since 2021, modely and GAC have replaced flat wire motors. All Byd Company Limited(002594) DMI adopt flat wire motors. The potential models to be listed in the future, such as et5, et7, Zhiji and jikrypton, also adopt flat wire motors. Considering the advantages of flat wire such as high power density, high energy conversion efficiency and good heat dissipation, it is expected that the penetration rate of flat wire motors will increase rapidly in the next 3-5 years. With the increasing recognition of electric vehicles on the consumer side, we believe that the performance upgrading trend of new energy vehicles will drive the demand for four-wheel drive dual motor and even three motor models. The increase in the proportion of dual motor models will further stimulate the market demand of the motor industry. It is expected that the global drive motor market is expected to reach 74 billion yuan in 2025.
Flat wire motors have multiple barriers, and advantageous enterprises are expected to enlarge their competitive advantage. The barriers of flat wire motor are mainly reflected in: 1) equipment: the equipment requires high precision and must rely on automatic production line; 2) Material: the copper wire must be elastic, but the rebound after bending needs to make the insulation layer of the electromagnetic wire not damaged; During the shrinkage process of flat wire coating, the four corners will become thinner, which will affect the insulation, so it needs to be thickened at the corners; 3) The process is complex, and more than ten processes need to be formed at one time. At present, among the flat wire motor enterprises that have stable production and supply, overseas mainly include liandian, Bosch, BorgWarner, etc., and China mainly includes Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) , Tianjin Songzheng, Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) . It is expected that advantageous enterprises are expected to amplify their advantages in technological upgrading.
The turning point of driving motor profit has arrived, and the professional motor enterprises with first mover advantage are expected to be strong and strong. In the past, the drive motor industry was unable to make profits mainly due to the high R & D expenses and the absence of popular models, which was reflected in the fact that each model developed had to be designed with a separate production line. However, in the past few years, there have not been popular models with good quality and high sales volume. Therefore, the motor industry presents a state of scattered market, low revenue of each enterprise and high cost rate. Since 2020, with the rise of Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) and weixiaoli brands, the industry scale effect has begun to appear. In 2022, the price rise trend of raw materials slowed down, and some enterprises have transmitted cost pressure through the preferential price mechanism. We believe that the third-party motor enterprises with first mover advantages in technology and client are expected to quickly increase the revenue scale and take the lead in turning losses into profits, further consolidate their advantages in technology and cost and expand more market share through cooperation with high-quality vehicle enterprises.
Investment proposal and investment object
The trend of large-scale and performance-based Motors has come. With the rapid increase of new energy vehicles, the sales volume is expected to quickly reach from one million to ten million. With the opening of the industry market space and the upgrading of terminal models, the threshold of driving motors will be raised rapidly. In the future, motors will develop in the direction of dual motors and flat lines, Third party enterprises focusing on motors are expected to continue to expand their competitive advantages and obtain higher market share. With the decline of the cost of raw materials and the rise of the price of motor products, the overall cost caused by the superposition of scale effect has decreased, and the profit inflection point of the drive motor industry has come. We believe that the third-party motor enterprises with the first mover advantage are expected to take the lead in making profits. At the same time, a moat is established in terms of profitability, technology, customers and scale, and the drive motor industry is expected to be strong in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) (002196, not rated), Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) - UW (688280, not rated), Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) (600580, not rated), Zhongshan Broad-Ocean Motor Co.Ltd(002249) (002249, not rated), Changying Xinzhi Technology Co.Ltd(002664) (002664, not rated).
Risk tips
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials is rising, and the profit of motor is under pressure; The customer expansion of third-party motor enterprises is less than expected; Measure the limitation risk.
