New energy vehicles: due to seasonal factors, the sales volume fell month on month, and the new forces released by personal demand performed well. On February 14, the all China Federation of passenger cars released the production and sales data of passenger cars in January, which decreased month on month due to seasonal factors, but the decline was better than expected. According to the data, the wholesale sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars reached 412000, a year-on-year increase of 141.4% and a month on month decrease of 18.5%. In terms of brands, Byd Company Limited(002594) several models performed well, with sales volume reaching 93101 in January, with a month on month ratio of + 357.95 / – 0.25%. All pure electric hybrid vehicles performed well; New forces performed well. Nezha’s sales volume reached a new high in a single month. Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng fell only 7.98 \\ 12.91 \\ 19.24% month on month, while Nezha and Zero run increased slightly month on month. With the continuous release of personal demand, new forces covered the whole line in the fields of vehicle model price, and is expected to continue to increase their share in the transformation of new energy vehicle market under the condition of gradually gaining a firm foothold in reputation and production capacity; The performance of traditional auto companies has differentiated, and GAC and SAIC have excellent performance, with continuous growth on a month on month basis.
Power battery: in January, the power battery increased by 86% year-on-year, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate continued to increase. In January 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery loading capacity was 16.2gw, with a year-on-year increase of 86.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 38.3%, still showing a rapid growth year-on-year; Among them, 7.3gw of ternary batteries were loaded, with a year-on-year increase of 35.2% and a month on month decrease of 34.0%, accounting for 45.1%; A total of 8.9gw of lithium iron phosphate batteries were loaded, with a year-on-year increase of 172.7% and a month on month decrease of 41.0%, accounting for 54.9%. With the continuous recovery of class A and considering the cost, some car enterprises gradually issue lithium iron phosphate models, and the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been further stabilized. With the gradual matching of lithium iron phosphate with the basic models of most popular models, the market shows a rapid growth momentum. High nickel ternary materials are still required for models with low performance. With the increase of the capacity of Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) cylindrical batteries, Panasonic 4680 cylindrical batteries are expected to be gradually put into production. Through material modification, battery structure optimization, system protection and other strategies, high nickel ternary safety short board is expected to be improved, We believe that with the gradual improvement of the industrial chain and battery metal recycling chain, the advantages of high nickel ternary in cost performance, performance and safety will appear.
Investment advice. Pay attention to the growth opportunities of lithium battery industry chain brought by the continuous expansion of battery manufacturers’ production capacity under the high climate of new energy vehicle industry, and pay attention to the leading manufacturers with obvious cost and economies of scale advantages and integrated upstream and downstream layout in the field of electrolyte and diaphragm with low technical barriers, Pay attention to the leading cathode material manufacturers with deep layout of high nickel ternary technology in cathode materials and obvious advantages in overseas business expansion; Under the clearing of high-cost production capacity, attention is paid to the upstream lithium mining enterprises with obvious cost and resource advantages. Attention is paid to the relevant listed companies with low mining costs and high-quality lithium resources. The Chinese listed companies with relevant resources are expected to continue to expand their market share through the integrated layout of lithium mining to lithium salt production and sales. The listed companies with relevant integrated layout are expected to continue to expand their market share by virtue of price advantages; Pay attention to the second-line battery manufacturers with the layout of the whole industry chain and certain downstream customer cooperation advantages, which are expected to obtain performance and large orders higher than the market growth rate.
Risk tip: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the competition in the lithium battery industry is intensified, the raw material prices in the industrial chain fluctuate sharply, and the new energy vehicle policy is less than expected.
