Key investment points:
The wholesale price of high-end liquor continued to fall, and the marginal cost of mass products improved
According to January 2022 data, the wholesale price of high-end Baijiu continued to fall, and the price of raw materials of public goods eased. Among them, flying Moutai 53 degrees (500ML) high-end liquor prices before last year's Spring Festival before the highest price of 3300 yuan, after the small fall after the high volatility, last year's national day price continued to reach 3880 yuan after continuing downward, recently cancelled by the box sales policy, the original box a further lower price, Baijiu after the Spring Festival prices continue to fall slightly. The current price band is 3190 yuan. The price of beer and wine did not fluctuate significantly. As of December, the cumulative beer output fell slightly year-on-year in 2019. In terms of cost environment, the price of pork is close to the relative bottom. After a slight rebound in the short term, the price of fresh milk continues to fall slightly month on month, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuates at a high level, and the price of packaging materials begins to loosen. At present, the cost environment is still facing some pressure, but it has passed the most difficult stage, Each fine molecular category has begun to respond by adjusting the product structure and raising prices.
Investment advice
Last month, the food and beverage sector fell sharply following the market, and the overall performance of the sector was poor. Since the beginning of the year, the adjustment of the sector has mainly focused on the following reasons: first, it has been continuously affected by the rumors of consumption tax; Second, the price increase expectation of leading liquor enterprises failed; Third, the market is worried about Baijiu selling in the busy season. Fourth, from the perspective of prolonging the time cycle, the sector valuation has not been significantly digested. Judging from the overall situation of Spring Festival, Baijiu and Su Jiu were better performing, while the price of public goods basically changed smoothly. From the monthly data, the industry has not changed substantially, and the upstream cost pressure has shown signs of easing. At the current time point, it is recommended to select stocks with reasonable valuation and their own growth attributes. On the sector side, it is still recommended to focus on the more high-end Baijiu, and change the space with time, and pay attention to the secondary high-end market. In terms of mass products, the beer sector with relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission is preferred, followed by dairy products. The price of raw milk in the upstream of dairy products has been flat with the same period last year. On the basis of good demand and early price increase, the performance is expected to accelerate the release. It is recommended to pay active attention. To sum up, we give the industry a "optimistic" investment rating and continue to recommend Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858), Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369), Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) (600298), Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (600887).
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, major food safety risks, and epidemic prevention and control are less than expected
