The total premium of life insurance of most insurance companies increased negatively in January, and the value of new orders may be under pressure year-on-year
In January 2022, the total life insurance premiums of five listed insurance companies were - 0.4% year-on-year (January 2021 + 8.5%), including The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) + 22.7%, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) + 3.6%, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) - 0.8%, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) - 1.1%, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) - 5.3%. In January, the total premium of life insurance was under pressure year-on-year, and the total premium of the three insurance companies decreased year-on-year. It is expected that the premium of new orders will be under pressure due to the high base in the same period, the decline of team size, the weak release of security demand and the advance of the Spring Festival. The increase of renewal premium failed to fill the decline of new orders. Considering that the business operation rhythm is affected by the Spring Festival holiday, we expect that the year-on-year improvement probability of the new order value in February is low. In addition, since the main products are mostly large-scale products, the value rate is relatively low, and the new order value is year-on-year or under pressure, we expect that the new order value of each insurance enterprise in the first quarter of 2022 may be in the range of - 20% to - 30% year-on-year.
The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) single payment business has made great efforts to drive the new single premium and total premium income to lead the industry year-on-year
The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) in the life insurance and health insurance sector, the single premium in January was 21.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 68.5%, and the regular new policy premium was 9.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 16.4%. The single premium business continued to make efforts and maintained a positive year-on-year growth since November 2021, driving the new policy premium in January to increase by 29.1% year-on-year and the total premium income by + 22.7%, leading the industry. Other insurance companies did not disclose the split of premium, but considering that only New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) achieved a year-on-year + 3.6% of total premium income, and the total premium income of other insurance companies increased negatively year-on-year, we expect that the new single premium may be significantly under pressure.
The year-on-year growth of auto insurance premium exceeded expectations, and the growth of property insurance and health insurance may confirm that the market potential is still growing
In January 2022, the P & C premium income of the four listed insurance companies was + 11.9% (January 2021 - 2.5%), an increase of 10.9pct compared with + 1.0% in December. The P & C premiums of each insurance company in January were: PICC P & C + 13.8% (December + 30.4%), CPIC P & C + 12.7% (December + 7.7%), Zhong'an Online + 12.4% (December - 17.6%), Ping An P & C + 8.2% (December + 14.2%). The year-on-year premium income of the property insurance section was significantly better than our previous expectations, mainly due to the year-on-year higher than expected auto insurance premium. The auto insurance premium of PICC Property Insurance in January was 27.58 billion yuan, up + 14.5% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate has increased continuously since the pressure on the comprehensive reform of auto insurance was relieved in October 2021. The main reason may be that the leading insurance enterprises have obvious advantages in service, pricing and data after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, and the market pattern is optimized, Due to the increase in the concentration of the auto insurance market, in addition, the increase in the sales volume of new energy vehicles may increase the average vehicle premium to a certain extent. The premium income of PICC Property and casualty insurance and health insurance in January was 16.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.1%; the premium income of Ping An Health Insurance in January was 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.4%; the premium income of Zhongan online in January was 2.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.4%. The year-on-year increase in the premium income of property insurance companies' health insurance may indicate that residents' protection needs still exist, and the standardized medical insurance with low parts is accelerating to be recognized by consumers, The potential of health insurance market is still.
The impact of the liability side on PEV valuation is gradually passivated, and the improvement of the asset side may be the investment logic of the next stage
According to the data disclosed at present, the pressure bearing situation on the liability side is basically determined. Subject to the painful period of life insurance transformation and the low level of team manpower, the probability of marginal improvement on the liability side is low in the short term, the impact of the liability side on PEV valuation is gradually passivated, and the marginal improvement on the asset side may become the investment logic of the lower stage. The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rebounded recently, rising to 2.79% on February 16; The risk resolution of the real estate chain has been continuously promoted. On February 9, China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) announced that it has signed a contract to realize the debt restructuring amount of 42.9 billion yuan, accounting for about 20% of the financial debt of 219.2 billion yuan. There has been a significant marginal improvement on the asset side. According to our calculation, if the long-term interest rate is expected to rise to 3%, the real estate chain risk resolution is expected to rise, and the EV growth is superimposed, the valuation repair space is expected to exceed 20%. The improvement of social finance is good for the expected repair of the market on the investment side of insurance stocks, and the impact of the liability side on the valuation is passivated. From the transaction level, the institutional position is at a historical low, and the subject matter with greater asset side flexibility is the main line at this stage. It is recommended to recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) with larger asset side repair space, benefit subject matter China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) and AIA.
Risk tip: the economic recovery is less than expected; The long-term interest rate is lower than expected; Insurance demand weakened more than expected.
