Observation this week
The Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to strengthen and improve the demand for industrial metals, and the price of rare earth oxides rose in an all-round way
Copper: affected by the US inflation data in January, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates continued to strengthen. Under the background of China’s steady growth, copper prices rose slightly. Follow Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) . As of February 16, Shanghai copper closed at 71510 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 1.50%; The inventory received 71.69 million tons, with a weekly change of 190.50%.
Aluminum: affected by the overseas energy crisis, the production reduction in the international market is expected to continue. Affected by the epidemic in Baise, Guangxi, China’s aluminum plant operating rate and alumina transportation, aluminum prices are relatively strong. The rise in costs this week reduced the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry. Follow Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) . As of February 16, Shanghai aluminum reported 22615 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of – 1.11%; The inventory reported 193629 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 33.42%.
Rare earth permanent magnet: the price of rare earth oxide rose comprehensively this week. As of February 16, praseodymium oxide (the lowest price) closed at 1071000 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 13.57%; Neodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 1.19 million, with a weekly change of 10.49%; Praseodymium neodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 1080000 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 12.15%; Dysprosium oxide (lowest price) closed at 3120 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 3.65%; Terbium oxide (lowest price) closed at 14970 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 9.83%. The rare earth industry is in a new growth cycle, and the price is expected to continue the rising trend of the beginning of the year. The rare earth industry has undergone fundamental changes in terms of supply and demand. The orderly and highly centralized supply pattern in China and the stabilization of global supply have reduced the supply elasticity. It is estimated that the annual rare earth mining and smelting index in 2022 will be about 202000 tons, an increase of about 20% year-on-year. In terms of demand, under the background of global low-carbon and electrification, new energy vehicles, improved energy efficiency of industrial motors, wind power, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) have replaced consumer electronics as the main driving force of rare earth permanent magnet demand, resulting in a leap in magnitude. We expect the average annual compound growth rate to be about 26% from 2022 to 25. Follow Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) .
Risk tip: the global economic recovery is less than expected; US inflation remains high; The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; The energy crisis eased more than expected; The demand for magnetic materials is less than expected; Rapid recovery of supply in Myanmar; Power rationing less than expected
