Industry core view:
On February 10, 2022, the central bank released financial statistics for January 2022.
Key investment points:
In January, the growth rate of social finance stock rose by 0.2 percentage points month on month: in January, social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of January, the stock of social finance was 320.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.5% and a month on month increase of 0.2 percentage points. The year-on-year increase in new loans, corporate bonds and government bonds was the main contributing factor. Based on the above data, the growth rate of social finance picked up slightly in January under the influence of the lenient fiscal policy. However, due to the possibility of delayed credit supply, the recovery of actual credit demand and social finance growth still needs to be further observed.
Medium and long-term corporate loans improved: in January, new loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year, better than market expectations. Residential loans increased by 843 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 427 billion yuan. The financing environment of residential mortgage loans has improved significantly, but it may be affected by the Spring Festival factors and the superimposed base effect, resulting in a significant year-on-year decrease. On the enterprise side, medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 60 billion yuan year-on-year. It is expected to have a certain relationship with the lenient fiscal policy. In terms of short-term loans, 1.01 trillion yuan was added in the month, an increase of 434.5 billion yuan year-on-year, which was significantly higher than the high point during the epidemic period. The sustainability of follow-up investment remains to be seen. Bills increased by 319.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with a significant increase in volume.
M2 rose 0.8 percentage points month on month: in January, RMB deposits increased by 3.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 260 billion yuan year-on-year. Structurally, household deposits increased by 5.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.93 trillion yuan year-on-year, and deposits of non-financial enterprises decreased by 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.35 trillion yuan year-on-year. The deposits of non bank financial institutions decreased by 183.6 billion yuan, an increase of 71.6 billion yuan year-on-year. Fiscal deposits increased by 584.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 585.1 billion yuan. In January, M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, up 0.8 percentage points month on month; M1 fell 1.9% year-on-year, down 5.4 percentage points month on month.
Investment strategy: the differentiation of demand side may dominate the rhythm of credit supply between regions and banks. From the perspective of aggregate, the credit growth is expected to remain stable under the stable growth policy. In the medium and long term, we believe that the internal differentiation of the banking sector will continue. It is suggested to pay attention to the banks whose proportion of intermediate business income continues to increase and the banks whose fundamentals continue to improve.
Risk factors: the rapid clearing of debt risks has led to a sharp rise in credit spreads. If the epidemic repeatedly causes the overall economy to continue to weaken, the enterprise revenue will deteriorate significantly, and the performance of the banking sector will fluctuate.
