The unit value of offshore tower / pipe pile is expected to increase. Tower / pipe pile is the core manufacturing link of offshore wind power. With reference to specific project cases, the pile diameter and length of steel pipe pile and the height of jacket are increased due to the large-scale fan. The dilution effect on pipe pile and tower is not obvious, while the increase of water depth may lead to the change of fan foundation structure and the increase of consumption. Referring to the design scheme of Qingzhou No. 6 in Yangjiang of the Three Gorges, the total consumption of tower and pipe pile reaches 366000 tons / GW, which is higher than the consumption level of the typical project Yangjiang Shaba phase III of the Three Gorges. On the whole, the unit value of tower / pipe pile remains unchanged, and the demand for offshore wind power tower / pipe pile in China will increase with the growth of new installed capacity of offshore wind power, which is expected to reach 5.4 million tons in 2025.
The outlet potential of offshore wind power tower / pipe pile is large. According to the prediction of the Global Wind Energy Association, by 2025, the new installed capacity of offshore wind in the overseas market is expected to reach about 17gw, an increase of about 4.6 times compared with 2020, and the compound growth rate between 2020 and 2025 will reach 41%. The major offshore wind power pipe pile enterprises in Europe include EEW and SIF, which together account for about 90% of the European offshore wind power single pile market. China's offshore wind power tower / pipe pile enterprises have obvious cost advantages over major European competitors, and are expected to replicate the export trend of onshore towers in the future. Referring to the share of Chinese enterprises in the overseas market of onshore tower, if Chinese enterprises can occupy about 20% of the overseas offshore wind power tower and pipe pile Market in 2025, the export scale will exceed 1 million tons.
Competition pattern: expansion in the short term and export in the medium and long term. With the equalization of market distribution after rush loading and the expansion of production capacity of relevant enterprises, the original competition pattern of offshore wind power tower / pipe pile may be loosened, and a new pattern is being constructed. In the short term, enterprises that can obtain high-quality shoreline resources in key markets and achieve substantial expansion of production capacity are expected to take the lead. Comprehensive strength such as technical strength and product reputation, financial strength and expansion ability, and expansion potential of overseas markets may become the core competitive elements for major tower and pipe pile Enterprises to compete for key resources; In the medium and long term, enterprises that can open overseas markets and have the ability to build a comprehensive production base have more advantages.
Investment advice. Offshore wind power tower / pipe pile is a high-quality track. China's demand is growing rapidly and has great export potential. Recommend Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) with outstanding capacity scale, technical strength, expansion ability and overseas business expansion ability. It is recommended to pay attention to leading enterprises such as Haili wind power, Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Shanghai Taisheng Wind Power Equipment Co.Ltd(300129) .
Risk tips: 1. The technological progress and cost reduction rate of offshore wind power are lower than expected, resulting in the parity process of offshore wind power and the future installed capacity lower than expected. 2. 2. The export process of offshore wind power tower / pipe pile in China is less than expected. 3. At present, many enterprises plan to expand production, which does not rule out the possibility that the competition of offshore wind power tower / pipe pile is intensified and the profit level is lower than expected.
