\u3000\u3000 Gl Tech Co.Ltd(300480) (300480)
Key investment points
Cutting is a key step in the packaging process, and the downstream production expansion promotes the rapid growth of the dicing machine market. Packaging mainly realizes the protection of chips and the external connection of electrical signals. VLSI data shows that in 2018, the value of Mounter, scriber and lead machine in packaging equipment was 30%, 28% and 23% respectively, which is the main type of packaging equipment. Scriber is used for micro processing such as wafer scribing, segmentation or slotting, Its cutting quality and efficiency directly affect the quality and production cost of chips. The types of dicing machines are mainly divided into grinding wheel dicing machine and laser dicing machine, in which blade cutting (grinding wheel) is the mainstream cutting process. According to semi data, the global packaging equipment market in 2021 was US $6.99 billion, with a compound growth rate of 18% from 2015 to 2021. It is expected that it will continue to grow to US $7.29 billion in 2022. The market space of dicing machine in 2022 is about US $2.04 billion. China's packaging link is relatively mature, and the industry market accounts for about one quarter of the world, It is estimated that the market space of semiconductor dicing machine will be 3.2-3.6 billion yuan in 2022.
The Japanese giant oligopoly monopolized the semiconductor dicing machine market, and the curtain of domestic substitution gradually opened. Like the previous equipment, packaging equipment technology and processing and manufacturing capacity are the key to the development of packaging industry. Global packaging equipment presents an oligopoly pattern. ASM Pacific, K & S, besi, disco, towa, Yamada and other companies occupy most of the packaging equipment market. The industry is highly concentrated. The main brands of loading machines are ASM Pacific, besi, Japan fasford and Fuji machinery, The main brands of rewinder are ASM Pacific and besi; The main brands of wire welding equipment are American K & S, ASM Pacific, Japan Shinkawa, etc; The main brands of plastic packaging system are besi, Japan towa, ASM Pacific and Japan Yamada; In terms of dicing machines, disco of Japan currently monopolizes more than 70% of the world's packaging key equipment thinning machine and dicing machine market, followed by Tokyo precision accretech, and the localization rate of dicing machines is only about 5%. China's major enterprises include Gl Tech Co.Ltd(300480) , CETC 45 Institute, Jiangsu Jingchuang, Shenyang Heyan and Shenzhen Huateng, most of which are only used for cutting led and discrete devices, The 12 inch dicing machine used for cutting integrated circuits is gradually becoming domestic in recent years.
Gl Tech Co.Ltd(300480) : the capacity of the whole dicing machine is released + the application field is expanded with the air spindle as the core, and the platform leader of semiconductor packaging equipment is expected to rise rapidly. Before 2016, the company was committed to the R & D, production and sales of coal mine safety monitoring equipment and systems. Later, through the continuous acquisition of LP, LPB, ADT and other companies, the company quickly entered the field of semiconductor dicing machine and core parts air spindle. After the acquisition of high-quality subsidiaries, the company quickly integrated high-quality resources and realized the vertical integrated development of the industrial chain. While improving the operation efficiency of overseas entities, Actively promote the localization of dicing machine and air spindle. In terms of the whole machine of dicing machine, 6230 and 8230, the most mainstream and advanced 12 inch wafer cutting and dicing equipment in the industry led by the company's local R & D team in Zhengzhou, and the latest 12 inch wafer cutting machine 8030 of ADT have entered Chinese and foreign head sealing and testing enterprises and have obtained orders. After the fixed increase project is put into operation, the production capacity will be greatly improved, In addition, the company also launched the laser cutting machine project to make up for its shortcomings in the field of dicing machine; In terms of core parts, the company is accelerating the localization of high-precision air spindles through convertible bond investment projects. Air spindles are used in semiconductor polishing, thinning, automobile painting, medical treatment, high-end machine tools and other fields. In the semiconductor field, they are the core parts of CMP equipment, back thinning machine, grinder and other equipment, with high barriers, urgent demand for localization and broad space, On the one hand, the air spindle has brought the advantages of vertical integration to the company, on the other hand, it has also laid a good foundation for the company to expand its categories in the field of complete machines.
Profit forecast and rating: the company has grown rapidly through extensive M & A + endogenous R & D, and the effect of 1 + 1 > 2 is remarkable. Under the trend of downstream production expansion and equipment localization, the company is expected to carry the banner of packaging equipment localization and realize rapid rise. Based on the principle of prudence, the impact of convertible bond issuance on the company's performance will not be considered temporarily, We estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 609 / 11.73/1.538 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 133 / 240 / 344 million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.49/0.89/1.28 yuan / share respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE will be 65 / 36 / 25 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: (1) the epidemic has led to lower than expected demand for semiconductor terminals; (2) The capacity expansion progress of China's main sealing and testing plants is less than expected; (3) The customer verification and import are not as expected, resulting in the domestic substitution process not as expected; (4) The research and development progress of key semiconductor technology is less than expected; (5) Risk of disconnection of key upstream equipment and components; (6) Impact of uncertainty on the implementation progress of convertible bond issuance
