\u3000\u3000 Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) (688105)
Key investment points:
Molecular biological reagent leader, diversified expansion and rapid growth
Based on the technological innovation of key raw materials such as enzymes and proteins, the company is a leading enterprise of domestic molecular biological reagents. It has obvious advantages in the fields of scientific research, diagnosis and sequencing, and continues to expand product categories and application scenarios. It is in a period of rapid growth in recent years. In 2020, the revenue was 1.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 483%, and the net profit was 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3086%. Excluding covid-19, the regular business income was 384 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43%, and the compound growth rate of income from 2017 to 2020 reached 224%.
The biological reagent industry has a large space, and covid-19 accelerates domestic independent supply
Benefiting from the continuous increase of R & D investment in the field of life sciences and the vigorous development of downstream, China's biological reagent market has maintained rapid growth, with a CAGR of 17.2% from 2015 to 2019. It is estimated that the market scale of biological reagents in China will reach 20 billion yuan in 2022, of which molecular biological reagents will reach 10 billion yuan. The company accounts for 4% of the market in the molecular category, and the industry space is large. At the same time, the complex international trade environment and repeated epidemics have led to the instability of the supply chain, accelerated the independent supply of core raw materials for biomedicine in China, and the demand for localization of biological reagents has been increasing.
Actively expand the downstream application market, and the business layout is forward-looking
The company actively expands into new business areas every 1-2 years. In 2016, it entered the field of in vitro diagnosis and achieved differentiated competition by relying on the high-efficiency expression of highly specific antibodies and unique quantum dot technology. In 2020, the revenue of diagnostic reagents was 560 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1915%, of which the revenue of conventional part was 42 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 49%. In 2019, the biopharmaceutical business was prospectively arranged, and covid-19 emerged during the epidemic: the screened covid-19 antibody drugs achieved transfer authorization; Enter the vaccine industry chain by providing vaccine clinical cro services and mRNA production raw materials.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 719 / 770 / 897 million respectively, the corresponding PE will be 49 / 46 / 40 times respectively, the profit from routine business will be RMB 263 / 436 / 644 million respectively, and the three-year CAGR will be 66.34%. Relying on core technology and the overall layout of upstream and downstream, the company is expected to become a leading domestic life science service enterprise with broad growth space in the future. According to the valuation of comparable companies in the industry, 60 times PE will be given in 2022, with a corresponding share price of 115.56 yuan and a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Risk of performance fluctuation caused by reduced demand for covid-19 related products; The increase of new entrants leads to the risk of intensified market competition; The risk of Sino US trade friction.
