\u3000\u3000 Nanjing Yunhai Special Metals Co.Ltd(002182) (002182)
Key investment points:
The company issued the annual performance express of 2021 and the performance forecast of the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 8130835600 yuan, an increase of 36.76% over 5945528000 yuan in the same period last year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 503419500 yuan, an increase of 106.53% over 243746700 yuan in the same period last year. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to listed shareholders in the first quarter of 2022 will be 270 ~ 370 million yuan, an increase of 257.94% ~ 390.52% over 75.4309 million yuan in the same period of last year; The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 252 ~ 352 million yuan, an increase of 419.22% ~ 625.26% over 48.5341 million yuan in the same period of last year.
Since Q3 of 2021, due to the impact of raw material price rise and policy end production restriction, the price of raw magnesium has increased significantly. The company has a relatively complete industrial chain of raw magnesium smelting and magnesium deep processing, which fully benefits from the transmission of magnesium alloy price to the downstream and significant profit release. In terms of supply, according to the data of shangmei.com, the national original magnesium output was 823000 tons from January to November 2021, of which Yulin, as the main original magnesium producing area in China, the output of metal magnesium was 474000 tons, a decrease of 5.2% over the same period last year. In terms of demand, automobile lightweight has become the general trend of the development of the global automobile industry chain, creating a large number of market opportunities for magnesium aluminum alloy materials with light weight, high safety and excellent comprehensive performance, which will further boost the demand for magnesium alloy products in the downstream of the industry chain. Overall, the company has a relatively complete original magnesium smelting and magnesium deep processing industrial chain, which fully benefits from the profit thickening brought by the transmission of magnesium alloy prices to the downstream.
The new production capacity will be put in place in line with the trend, which will help the all-round development of magnesium aluminum industry chain, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to improve.
In terms of upstream raw materials, the company’s joint venture Anhui Bao magnesium light alloy Co., Ltd. competed for the mining right of magnesium dolomite mine in wujiaye, Huayuan, Qingyang County. In terms of downstream magnesium aluminum products, Nanjing Yunhai Special Metals Co.Ltd(002182) invested in the construction of 150000 tons of lightweight aluminum extruded profiles and supporting projects, and established Anhui Yunhai Aluminum Co., Ltd. In addition, Chongqing Bo’ao phase II project, Chaohu Yunhai and Qingyang project will be constructed and put into operation. It is expected that the company’s complete industrial chain capacity of raw materials and products of magnesium aluminum materials will be consolidated and its performance will usher in a continuous outbreak.
Profit forecast and rating. As the leader of magnesium smelting and deep processing integration in China, the company is expected to achieve leapfrog development with the continuous in-depth resource integration and client expansion of Baosteel metal, the second largest shareholder at this stage. It is estimated that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 838 / 869 million yuan and EPS of 1.30/1.34 yuan in 2022 / 2023. According to the closing price on February 16, the corresponding PE is 18.35/17.81, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tip: there are shortcomings in the operation of magnesium industry in terms of smelting environmental protection level and application of deep-processing products, and the progress of new production capacity is less than expected.
