\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (002850)
Events
Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) recently released performance forecast: the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 520-570 million yuan / yoy + 191% – 219% in 2021, and it is expected to deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 494-544 million yuan / yoy + 205% – 236%.
Key investment points
Outstanding performance and significant global position
The company is the world’s leading supplier of lithium battery structural parts. It is expected to realize a net profit of 494-544 million yuan / yoy + 205% – 236% deducted from the parent company in 2021; Among them, 2021q4 achieved a net profit of 139-189 million yuan / yoy + 95% – 165%, qoq-7% to + 26%, with eye-catching performance. In the product cost structure, in 2020, the cost of raw materials accounts for about 56%, direct labor accounts for about 16%, and manufacturing expenses account for about 28%. Although copper and aluminum raw materials increased by about 25% and 30% respectively in 2021, there was a strong demand for power batteries in the same period. The company’s capacity utilization remained high and automation improved, which was conducive to dilution of manufacturing costs and hedged the pressure brought by the rise of raw materials. On the whole, the management level of the company is excellent, and its profitability remains in good condition in 2021, which is at the leading level in the industry.
We believe that the company’s R & D strength and technical reserves are leading in the industry, and constantly promote product renewal and iteration. The company is expected to promote the continuous improvement of the company’s performance with the advantages of high-quality products, technical strength, production capacity and the layout of nearby customers.
Global scale-up and expansion of production and development of high-quality customers
Around the world’s leading customers, the company has arranged production capacity nearby and locked in market share. At present, the company has built nine production bases in China, including Liyang, Yibin, Ningde, Huizhou and Shenzhen, and three overseas production bases, including Germany, Hungary and Sweden, which can supply global leading customers such as catl, Panasonic, Tesla, LGC and China Innovation airlines. In 2022, the company’s overseas production bases including Germany (supporting Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ), Hungary (supporting Samsung, etc.) and Sweden (supporting northvolt) will be put into operation, contributing to the increment. In 2021, the company’s production capacity is at the level of high utilization rate. In 2022, the company’s production capacity is expected to double, the demand is strong, and the driving revenue is expected to double. We expect that the company’s planned capacity + existing capacity has exceeded 15 billion output value, and there is great room for growth in the future.
On the whole, the company actively layout its production capacity, accelerate the pace of global expansion, supply and serve global leading customers nearby, further strengthen the competitiveness of the company and consolidate its leading position.
Deep cultivation of lithium battery structure track, excellent growth
The company takes technology as the core and customers as the center, deeply cultivates the lithium battery structural parts track, the global expansion of production capacity, the irreversible trend of electrification, strong demand and excellent growth of the company. We believe that the large cylinder is an important technical route in the future, which is expected to replace part of the market share of the soft package. Overseas Tesla and others are expected to realize industrialization in 2022. China Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and others continue to follow up. The 4680 trend is clear, and the increase of the permeability of the large cylinder is expected to boost the demand for structural parts.
Overall, the company’s track has good growth, clear development path and strong certainty. As the world’s leading lithium battery structure leading enterprise, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the global energy revolution and highlight its excellent growth.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be RMB 550 / 11.3/1.63 billion, EPS will be RMB 234 / 4.85/7.01, and the corresponding PE will be 62 / 30 / 21 times respectively. Based on the company’s high-quality track, excellent customers, global capacity expansion and industrial layout in line with the future development trend, we are optimistic about the company’s medium and long-term upward development opportunities and give a “recommended” rating.
Risk tips
Policy fluctuation risk; Downstream demand is lower than expected; The product price is lower than expected; Risk of deterioration of competition pattern; Capacity expansion and digestion were less than expected.
