\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
The investment event company released the latest production and marketing express. In January, the company produced 111318 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%; The total sales volume was 111778 units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%.
Our analysis and judgment
(I) affected by the shortage of chips, the company’s output is weaker than the sales volume, and the sales volume of high priced popular models is bright, which is expected to expand the profit space. The monthly sales of Haval H6, Haval beast, tank 300 and Great Wall gun exceeded 10000. Among them, the Haval brand sold 70228 vehicles in January, the Haval big dog sold 7826 vehicles, and the Haval beast sold 10085 vehicles in January. It has been on the market for less than two months, and the cumulative sales volume has exceeded 16000 vehicles. 10363 tanks were delivered in January, with a year-on-year increase of 72.2%. In 2022, tanks will continue to bring two product matrices of “mecha technology” and “business luxury” to users through category innovation, service upgrading and ecological co creation. 12860 pickup trucks were sold in January, including 10059 Great Wall guns. In 2022, more new products of great wall and leisure will be launched.
(II) in the field of new energy, Euler brand sold 13229 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 28.9%. Euler good cat sold 9020 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 333.4%. In 2022, Euler ballet cat, Euler punk cat, Euler lightning cat and other products will gradually enter the market, boosting the continuous breakthrough of Euler brand sales. Among them, Euler ballet cat focuses on female consumers, with a price of 150000-200000 yuan. It is expected to be listed in the first half of this year. Lightning cat focuses on neutral, with a price of about 200000. It is expected to be listed in the second quarter of 2022. Punk cat, as the flagship model of Euler, is expected to be launched later than lightning cat.
(III) new cars have been launched one after another, leading the brand upward, and the overseas layout is expected to blossom at many points. It is expected that in 2022, new products such as haver cool dog, haver h6phev, wey Yuanmeng and tank 500 will be launched one after another, which will continue to drive the company’s sales and lead the brand upward. In addition, in 2022, the company’s overseas layout will blossom at many points. Haval, Euler and Great Wall pickup trucks will also promote more models to go overseas, deeply cultivate advantageous markets such as Russia, Australia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Chile, and continue to actively explore more overseas markets such as Europe and Thailand.
Investment suggestion: the company is a leading independent automobile brand in China, with significant leading advantages in SUV and pickup market segments. With the support of new platforms and technologies, the company’s product power has been significantly improved, and the differentiated competitive strategy has laid a solid foundation for the simultaneous rise of product volume and price. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 6.782/107.66/14.57 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26.47% / 58.74% / 35.34%; EPS is 0.74/1.17/1.58 yuan / share, corresponding to 53 / 33 / 25 times of PE, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
1. Tips on the impact of chip shortage: 1. The risk of limited production; 2. The upward pressure on the cost of new energy vehicles driven by the price rise of upstream raw materials; 3. The pressure of macroeconomic slowdown.
