\u3000\u3000 Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) (002092)
Core view:
On February 17, the company released its annual report for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 62.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.83%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.703 billion yuan, an increase of 1769.96% year-on-year; The basic earnings per share was 1.16 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1627.04%.
Net profit increased significantly in 2021, but Q4 performance was lower than expected. In 2021, the company's Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co.Ltd(600618) revenue was 19.115 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 57.35%; The revenue of textile industry was 7.08 billion, an increase of 50.00% year-on-year; The revenue of modern trade decreased by 48.89% year-on-year. We believe that the increase in the sales volume and selling price of PVC and viscose staple fiber / yarn is the main reason for the significant increase in net profit; However, due to the transfer of 60% equity of Shanghai Duojing, the reduction of modern trade business led to a significant decline in the company's revenue. Q4 performance was lower than expected due to the company's provision of 246 million impairment and other factors.
The stabilization and recovery of main product prices + calcium carbide projects under construction have brought flexibility to the company's performance. Since the beginning of the year, the prices of PVC, caustic soda, viscose staple fiber and other products have increased by 3.9%, 33.9% and 8.5% respectively. We expect that under the support of calcium carbide cost, PVC will maintain a high price level, and PVC enterprises with self-produced calcium carbide will continue to maintain high profitability; The supply and demand of caustic soda are basically balanced, and it is expected to remain high; Viscose staple fiber basically has no new production capacity in the future. Under the background of supply-demand mismatch, the price focus is expected to continue to move up. The calcium carbide projects under construction include Jinhui Zhaofeng 750000 T / A and toxon phase II 600000 T / A, which will bring large performance increment after being put into operation.
It is proposed to acquire Meike chemical to achieve a wholly-owned holding and vigorously layout the BDO track. Meike chemical is mainly engaged in BDO business, with a BDO capacity of 270000 tons / year. The actual output in 2021 will reach 283000 tons, ranking first in the country in terms of capacity and output; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.795 billion yuan. At present, the company holds 24.11% of the shares of MEC chemical and plans to acquire 75.89% of the shares of other shareholders to achieve wholly-owned holding. At present, Merck chemical is under construction / planning phase IV 100000 t / a calcium carbide BDO, phase V 100000 t / a natural gas BDO, Aksu Baicheng 300000 t / a calcium carbide BDO, and 60000 T / a PBAT projects under construction. With the gradual release of the project, it will significantly increase the company's performance and drive the improvement of the company's valuation.
It is suggested that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 43 billion yuan, 46.1 billion yuan and 47 billion yuan respectively without considering the acquisition of Meike chemical; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.48 billion yuan, 4.36 billion yuan and 4.89 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 28.7%, 25.4% and 12.1%; EPS is 1.35, 1.69 and 1.90 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 8.0, 6.4 and 5.7 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
The risk indicates the risk that the downstream demand is less than expected, the risk of sharp rise in the price of dissolved pulp, the risk of sharp decline in the price of main products, and the risk that the progress of major asset restructuring is less than expected.
