European January data: Holiday sequelae + impact of traditional off-season at the beginning of the year. The seasonal correction of sales in January is in line with market expectations. As a traditional off-season at the beginning of the year and affected by the effect at the end of December, in addition, Christmas at the end of December superimposed on New Year’s day. Under the holiday effect, European car companies and dealers are still on holiday. The sales of new energy vehicles in mainstream European countries decreased in varying degrees month on month. In addition, Tesla, which has gained a firm foothold in Europe, sold less than 1000 vehicles in January due to the impact of exports, The overall seasonal correction of the industry in the off-season is still lower than that in January 2021, and we think the data is in line with expectations. According to statistics, the sales volume of seven European countries reached 113700 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 30.5% and a month on month decrease of 46.4%. We expect the overall sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe to be 145000 in January 2022, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed the high growth expectation of 2.9 million vehicles.
Although the penetration rate of many countries declined in January, it remained high. Under the high penetration rate, the growth rate of Europe may enter a bottleneck period. Although the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the main market dominated by Britain, France and Germany decreased to varying degrees in January, considering the rebate and new year effect, Tesla‘s import and delivery returned to normal after February, and the layout of several pure electric brands accelerated. Under the background of European double carbon pressure, we believe that important countries such as Britain, France and Germany will continue to grow on the platform of 20% penetration rate, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands and other pioneer countries will remain unchanged, and emerging countries such as Portugal, Spain and Italy will show rapid growth in penetration under the promotion of policy subsidies. On the whole, the European new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain a high growth trend.
Investment advice. The impact of industry subsidy refund has almost completely subsided. With the electrification layout of traditional car enterprises, the industry has officially entered a high boom era. It is suggested to pay attention to the continuous rise of LFP battery penetration in passenger cars. Under the condition that China’s mainstream lithium iron phosphate power battery manufacturers and cathode leading enterprises are expected to maintain rapid growth in order performance in 22 years, pay attention to the growth of sales volume and lay out Chinese traditional automobile enterprises with Huawei and other Internet giants to make electric vehicles intelligent, Pay attention to the growth opportunities of the lithium battery industry chain brought by the continuous expansion of battery manufacturers’ production capacity under the high climate of the new energy vehicle industry. Under the condition that the upstream resources are still in short supply, pay attention to the relevant listed companies with low mining cost and high-quality lithium resources. They obtain higher gross profit with lower success instinct in the price rise, so the performance elasticity is relatively large.
Risk tip: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the competition in the lithium battery industry is intensified, the raw material prices in the industrial chain fluctuate sharply, and the new energy vehicle policy is less than expected.
