Core view
[market performance] last week, the CSI 300 index closed at 4601.40 points, up 0.8% in a week; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3462.95, up 3.0% in a week. Among CITIC’s 30 primary industries, coal, consumer services, petroleum and petrochemical sectors performed better last week, with the machinery industry falling by 1.6%, ranking 27th. In terms of molecular industries, the top five performing industries in the machinery industry last week were agricultural machinery equipment (+ 12.3%), oil service equipment (+ 8.5%), mining and metallurgical machinery (+ 6.0%), engine equipment (+ 4.4%) and metal products (+ 3.8%), with the largest decline being photovoltaic equipment (- 13.0%).
[key information] on February 10, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation. The opinion points out: improve the application standards of building renewable energy, encourage the integrated application of photovoltaic buildings, and support the construction of renewable energy building energy supply system by using Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , geothermal energy and biomass energy. Promote the construction of an energy supply system with clean and low-carbon energy as the main body, and accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas. Innovate the development and utilization mechanism of rural renewable energy, give priority to supporting the access of biomass power generation such as roof distributed photovoltaic power generation and biogas power generation to the power grid in rural areas, and encourage the use of land suitable for decentralized development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in rural areas. （CPIA）
[Key announcement] 1) Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) : the total amount of funds raised by the company from the issuance of convertible corporate bonds to unspecified objects does not exceed 483.3 million yuan. The net amount of funds raised after deducting the issuance expenses is all used for Leshan 12gw machining and supporting projects and Leshan 6Gw photovoltaic silicon wafer and supporting projects. 2) Robotechnik Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300757) : the company plans to purchase 78.65% of the equity of fiktec held by the counterparties Jianguang Guangzhi, Suyuan industrial investment, Suzhou Yongxin, Chaoyue Moore, Shangrong BAOYING and Changzhou Puhua by issuing shares and paying cash.
[view this week] excavator sales increased slightly and export sales increased significantly. According to the latest data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the sales volume of various excavators in January was 15600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%, including 8282 units in China, a year-on-year decrease of 48.35% and 7325 units exported, a year-on-year increase of 105%; The sales volume of various loaders was 7600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%, and the sales volume of 4117 units in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 38%; The export sales volume was 3481 units, with a year-on-year increase of 52.2%. In the second half of 2021, real estate and infrastructure entered a downward trend, and Chinese excavators were dragged down. The annual sales volume of excavators fell year-on-year. The annual sales volume of excavators was 342800 units, with a year-on-year increase of 4.63%, which was lower than the annual growth expectation of 10%.
With the issuance of special bonds, the fundamentals of the construction machinery industry are expected to be improved in advance and the demand release is expected to be advanced. The central economic conference clearly put forward that economic policies in 2022 should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. With the help of the financial side, 1.46 trillion yuan of special bonds were added in 2022. Among the new bonds issued in January, 484.48 billion yuan of special bonds were issued, accounting for 33% of the amount issued by the Ministry of Finance in advance. There was no new special bonds issued in the same period last year. From the perspective of the investment direction of the new special debt in January, it focuses on municipal and industrial park infrastructure, affordable housing projects and social undertakings, with infrastructure investment as the focus. With the issuance of special bonds, the fundamentals of the construction machinery industry are expected to be improved in advance and the demand release is expected to be advanced. From 2018 to 2020, after the construction machinery industry was affected by the holidays in January and February and seasonal factors in the first quarter, the sales volume of the industry improved significantly month on month in March. Affected by infrastructure investment, we expect that the construction machinery market in 2022 is expected to pick up in March and usher in a growth peak. Relevant targets include construction machinery leaders Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (600031), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) (600984).
Investment advice
Related targets of construction machinery sector: Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , etc.
Risk tips
The macro growth rate is lower than expected, the risk of global epidemic spread, the decline of Chinese market demand and policy changes
