Summary of this issue:
Crude oil: prices fluctuated and rose. In the early part of the week, the snowstorm and severe cold weather in the United States triggered the market’s concern about the shutdown of the largest shale oil producing area, superimposed the geopolitical tension, and the crude oil price continued to rise. Late in the week: the US Iraq negotiations released positive signals that the United States may lift sanctions on oil sales in Iraq, but the US crude oil and gasoline inventories were lower than expected, and the crude oil price rose first and then fell. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 92.32 (+ 1.37) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 90.85 (+ 1.78) USD / barrel.
PX: the overall market is upward. Crude oil prices rose and cost side support was strong. On the supply side, the overall supply was basically stable, and Fujian united and SINOCHEM Quanzhou realized the discharge supply market at the end of January. On the demand side, the downstream PTA demand for raw materials remained on the high side. The 3.3 million T / a PTA plant of Yisheng new materials phase 2 was put into operation on January 28. At present, half of the plant is in operation, and the 3.3 million T / a PTA plant of phase 1 was put into operation on February 9. A 2 million T / a PTA plant of Yisheng Ningbo began maintenance on February 10, and the 1.2 million T / a PTA plant of Zhongtai Petrochemical was put into operation during the Spring Festival. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 1084.36 (+ 35.51) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 410.41 (+ 25.49) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 209.86 (+ 25.29) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 71.60% (+ 8.50pct).
PTA: the market rose as a whole. The cost side support is relatively strong. On the supply side, PTA production capacity and output continued to increase due to the commissioning of new production capacity, and the oil price rose sharply during the holiday. PTA factories continued to sell spot goods after the holiday. On the demand side, the downstream polyester factories have resumed work one after another, and the commencement of polyester products has increased. However, recently, the price of raw materials is high, and the factory has a certain stock in the early stage, so the demand for raw materials just needs to be purchased. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 5708.57 (- 27.86) yuan / ton, the average net profit per ton of the industry is -32.24 (- 126.47) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 74.60% (-0.90pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 2276000 (- 25000) tons.
MEG: the market price fell slightly. The price of crude oil fluctuated and rose, the international price of naphtha followed the rise, the price of thermal coal continued to rise sharply, and the cost side support remained. On the supply side, one unit in North China was restarted, one unit in Central China was restarted, one unit in Northwest China was restarted and a new unit was put into trial operation. The supply has increased compared with last week. On the demand side, the terminal market has not fully returned to the market, the market demand still needs time to recover, the load of the terminal weaving industry is still low, the production and marketing of the polyester industry is still cold, and the support on the demand side is insufficient. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 5332.86 (- 114.29) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 795400 (+ 47400) tons, and the operating rate is 71.60% (+ 8.60pct).
Polyester filament: the market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, the international oil price soared, the support of polyester raw material end was strong, many filament enterprises raised their quotations, the focus of market transactions moved upward, the downstream worried about the increase of raw material procurement cost, some users purchased in an appropriate amount, and the market volume and price of polyester filament rose simultaneously. In the middle of the week, the crude oil price began to fall, the cost side support collapsed, which dragged down the market mentality. Many filament enterprises offered stable prices, downstream users watched carefully, the market transaction atmosphere was light, and the market was in a stalemate. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy8050 00 (+ 42.86) yuan / ton, fdy8150 00 (+ 0.00) yuan / ton and dty9700 00 (+ 42.86) yuan / ton, the industry average single ton profit is POY + 117.78 (+ 70.14) yuan / ton, fdy-81.33 (+ 41.69) yuan / ton and DTY + 350.08 (+ 70.14) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are POY 24.00 yuan / ton respectively 50 (+ 8.00) days, fdy26 50 (+ 6.00) days and dty28 50 (+ 6.50) days, operating rate 83.10% (+ 0.60pct).
Weaving: in holiday mode. At present, the downstream is still in the holiday mode and is expected to gradually return to work in the middle of May. Due to the recent fluctuation of the cost side, the downstream is cautious and has a weak willingness to purchase. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 31.10% (+ 9.59pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 33.70 (- 0.10) days.
Polyester staple fiber: market growth first and then decline. On the supply side, this week, Ningbo Quandi staple fiber plant was warmed up and restarted, Fujian Jingwei staple fiber plant was warmed up and restarted, Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) a new hollow staple fiber production line was put into operation, and the output was higher than that of last week. On the demand side, the shipment of polyester staple fiber was poor this week. Most staple fiber enterprises resume work and production, but the downstream yarn enterprises resume work slowly, and the downstream mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude, the follow-up to the high price supply is slow, and the demand has not fully recovered. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 7900.00 (- 83.33) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is 184.15 (- 13.62) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are + 0.80 (+ 1.10) days, and the operating rate is 73.40% (- 1.10pct).
Polyester bottle chip: the supply is gradually increased. On the supply side, after the festival, some manufacturers of polyester bottles and chips have relatively loose supply circulation. A 600000 T / a unit in the Southwest has been put into operation successfully. Recently, high-quality products have been produced, and the market supply has gradually increased. On the demand side, the overall market demand is light. At present, the downstream and terminal enterprises have not returned to work, the replenishment mood is not high, the orders in the sheet industry are insufficient, the construction starts continue to be low, and the domestic trade market is difficult to improve. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 8235.71 (- 114.29) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 539.72 (- 34.16) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 91.30% (+ 3.20pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to February 11, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 185.70%, the oil processing industry index decreased by – 10.51%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 20.63%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (601233. SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (600346. SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) (000703. SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493. SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) (603225. SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (000301. SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
