In January 2022, the demand of China’s three major airlines continued to rise month on month. In January 2022, Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines ask increased by 2.0%, 6.5% and 19.1% respectively over the same period last year, increased by 10.3%, 13.0% and 14.7% respectively month on month, and decreased by 52.4%, 43.7% and 40.2% respectively over the same period in 2019; The passenger volume changed by – 0.7%, – 2.2%, + 10.0% year-on-year respectively, increased by 3.2%, 4.4% and 8.0% month on month respectively, and decreased by 52.0%, 53.0% and 44.3% respectively compared with the same period in 2019; The occupancy rates were 59.6%, 56.1% and 62.3% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.8, 3.4 and 1.0 PCT respectively, and a month-on-month decrease of 3.8, 2.9 and 1.9 PCT respectively. In terms of structure, benefiting from the Spring Festival transportation, the demand of Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines for Chinese routes rebounded month on month. In January 2022, the passenger volume of Chinese routes increased by 2.9%, 4.4% and 8.3% month on month respectively; Based on the same period of 19 years, the passenger volume of Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines in China decreased by 40.6%, 44.0% and 34.3% respectively in January 2022.
Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) the passenger volume of Chinese routes rebounded month on month in January 22. Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) in January 2022, ask decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, of which ask of Chinese routes decreased by 2.3% year-on-year and increased by 20.0% month on month; The passenger volume decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased by 12.1% year-on-year and increased by 9.1% month on month.. Based on the same period of 19 years, Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) ask decreased by 12.6% in January of 22 years, of which ask of Chinese routes increased by 2.1%; In January of 22, the passenger volume decreased by 29.9%, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes decreased by 21.0%..
Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) the passenger volume of Chinese routes rebounded month on month in January 22. Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) January 22, ask increased by 26.0% year-on-year, of which ask of Chinese routes increased by 26.5% year-on-year and 35.7% month on month; The passenger volume increased by 24.8% year-on-year, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes increased by 25.0% year-on-year and 27.1% month on month. Based on the same period of 19 years, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ask increased by 16.7% in January of 22 years, of which ask of Chinese routes increased by 78.3%; In January of 22, the passenger volume decreased by 0.7%, of which the passenger volume of Chinese routes increased by 36.9%.
The passenger throughput of first tier airports and Chinese routes rose and fell month on month. In January 2022, the passenger throughput of capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Bao’an airport decreased by 78.5%, 50.5% and 56.6% respectively compared with the same period of 19 years. Among them, the passenger throughput of Chinese routes decreased by 71.2%, 33.8% and 51.8% respectively compared with the same period of 19 years, with a month on month change of – 8.4%, + 22.4% and – 33.5% respectively.
In 2021, China’s civil aviation transportation production was lower than expected, and the annual industry loss reached 84.3 billion yuan. According to the investigation report on the operation of profitable civil aviation enterprises in 2021 issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, under the influence of repeated fluctuations of the epidemic, China’s civil aviation transportation production in 2021 was less than expected, and the annual industry loss reached 84.3 billion yuan. In addition to the three major aviation support enterprises, 30 airports and 5 airlines have achieved profits and even contrarian growth. At the same time, the CAAC has judged that there may be the following three trends in the evolution of the global epidemic this year: first, the “external growth and internal stability”, and it is expected that China’s annual passenger transport volume will return to about 75% before the epidemic; Second, it is expected that China’s annual passenger transport volume will return to about 85% of that before the epidemic; The third is “external decline and internal stability”. It is expected that China’s annual production indicators will return to the level before the epidemic (or increase slightly).
Investment suggestion: with the continuous advancement of covid-19 vaccine / treatment technology, the demand for air passenger transport will gradually recover. The revaluation of the value of relevant companies is a deterministic event, and the short-term fluctuation of stock price does not change the upward trend of the airport sector. We maintain the industry’s “overweight” rating, recommend Air China Limited(601111) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , and suggest paying attention to China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Cod-19: the duration of the epidemic exceeds the market expectation; The sharp decline of macro economy leads to the decline of industry demand; Sino US trade frictions continue to ferment, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly; Crude oil prices rose sharply.
