Steel:
The procurement volume of thread screw was – 56.67% month on month and – 2.50% year on year; The total output of the five major steel products was – 2.69% month on month and – 14.07% year on year; The total amount of social Treasury, factory and warehouse was + 7.62% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.35%; Steel price chain ratio + 2.20%; In addition to hot rolling, the gross profit is good. Recently, under the supervision of the government, iron ore / coal has been corrected to improve profits. The supply is affected by the production restriction in North China during the Winter Olympics, and the downstream demand has not yet resumed on a large scale. It is expected to be released gradually after the Lantern Festival. In the short term, we need to stabilize the fundamentals or marginal improvement under economic + environmental protection and limited production. In the long term, we need to pay attention to the field of growth special steel.
Industrial metals:
The current price of LME copper / the current price of Yangtze nonferrous copper this week was + 1.93% / + 1.94% month on month; LME aluminum current price / Changjiang nonferrous aluminum current price month on month + 1.65% / + 2.96%. Copper: copper prices remained volatile under the triple factors of foreign interest rate increase expectation, China’s stable economy and low inventory. Aluminum: overseas production is expected to be reduced, and the supply is affected by the Chinese Winter Olympic Games and the epidemic situation in Guangxi; The demand side is supported by the stable economy, and the cost side fluctuates in a narrow range. It is expected that the aluminum price and profit are in the upward channel.
New energy metals:
In terms of lithium, the price of lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide this week was + 5.26% / + 9.53% month on month. The supply and demand of lithium continues to be tight, and the price of lithium continues to rise after the Spring Festival. Considering that there are still enterprises that have not returned to work and the demand may rise slightly after the Lantern Festival, the short-term lithium price center is still bullish.
Rare earth:
The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide / dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide this week was + 8.09% / + 1.15% / + 6.04% month on month. Under the policy regulation, the supply and demand of rare earth is expected to maintain a tight balance, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry and procurement is OK, and the price of rare earth is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Under the framework of energy-saving motors and new energy, the demand for magnetic materials is gradually opened, and the industry boom is optimistic for a long time.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) (603995), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756). For industrial metals, it is recommended to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388), Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219). It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) (600111), China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) (000831).
Risk tips
The risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk that downstream demand is lower than expected, and the risk that covid-19 epidemic spread is higher than expected.
