Investment advice
In January, online growth was still under pressure, and head brands with strong product / brand strength achieved contrarian growth. The slowdown of demand side growth, the enforcement of new regulations and the intensification of brand side differentiation. It is suggested to pay attention to the head company Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) / Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) / Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) with strong product R & D strength – Online multi platform operation ability, as well as Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) whose overseas epidemic mitigation orders are expected to pick up, benefiting from the stricter supervision of China’s new regulations and the improvement of performance driven by the investment of new production capacity, International customer agent factories are less affected by the new regulations and the release of new production capacity contributes to the performance of Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) .
Market Review
In January 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 7.65%, 10.29% and 7.62% respectively, and the cosmetics sector fell 12.09%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 3004.47 PCT. In terms of sector comparison, cosmetics is located in the middle and lower reaches of the industry. In terms of individual stocks, Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) , baozun e-commerce led the increase, while Chaoyun group, Fujian Green Pine Co.Ltd(300132) , Yixian e-commerce led the decrease.
Special topic of this week: online sales tracking of cosmetics in January
Skin care products: in January, the market size of the Amoy market was enlarged, and the flow of tiktok was still declining. Local brands perform better than international brands, and high-end brands perform better than the public. Key brands in Winona Tmall flagship store increased the number of single digit tiktok ranking rose to the top 15; Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) Tmall flagship store sales increased by 10%+, large single product sales beautiful average price increase, tiktok Tmall flagship store increased the number of single digit, shake voice ranking to enter the top 30; Tiktok Tmall’s flagship store / jitter has achieved a rapid growth in Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , and the sales of flagship store in Yi Lian Tmall has improved tiktok and shake.
Tiktok: in January, the Amoy tiktok market was down 20%, the decline was narrowed slightly compared with 4Q21, and the reduction of the trembling diversion was unchanged from the same year, and the proportion of the trembling sound accounted for the proportion of the Amoy department. International brands perform better than local brands, and high-end brands are better than the public. Guofeng and fashion FMCG brands continued to decline year-on-year, and local makeup artist brand Mao Geping / Caitang bucked the trend. Tiktok flagship store in key brands continued to grow in high double-digit growth, the tiktok ranked the top 3, the perfect diary of Yat sin’s electricity supplier / small Austin Tmall flagship store all dropped 60%+, the jitter channel perfect diary stable 5, and the small Austin entered the top 30.
Industry dynamics
Industry news: Estee Lauder Q2 has net sales of US $5.539 billion (about 35.2 billion yuan, + 14%) and net profit of US $1.090 billion (about 6.93 billion yuan, + 24%), with strong recovery and growth in the European and American markets; L’Oreal’s 21-year sales reached 32.28 billion euros (about 234.7 billion yuan, + 15.3%), a new high in recent 14 years, of which lifuquan’s growth rate exceeded 100%. China may become L’Oreal’s largest market; Shiseido achieved sales of 1035.1 billion yen (about 57.1 billion yuan, + 12.4%) in 21 years, and the net profit attributable to the mother turned into profit. The professional hairdressing business department will cut it to Henkel, Germany. In 22 years, it will gradually strengthen the layout of high value-added beauty and skin care; “Dad evaluation” part of the goods sold are shoddy, falling into a crisis of trust.
Key announcement: Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) has repurchased 968400 shares (accounting for 0.14% of the total share capital) by means of centralized bidding, with the highest / lowest transaction price of 46.0/41.1 yuan / share and the total amount of 42.77 million yuan; Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) it is predicted that akabang will have a net profit of 72.46 million yuan (+ 729%) and a revenue of 800 million yuan (+ 18%) in 21 years.
Risk tips
The development of new products / marketing / channels is less than expected; Loss of key customers of production / agent operators.
