Key investment points
Overall overview of the industry: Wholesale in January was – 8.2% month on month, better than we expected. Passenger Federation caliber: the output of narrow passenger cars reached 2.059 million (year-on-year + 10.4%, month on month – 16.5%), and the wholesale sales volume reached 2.172 million (year-on-year + 6.8%, month on month – 8.2%). The export of passenger cars (including complete vehicles and CKD) was 169000, with a year-on-year increase of + 91% and a month on month increase of – 0.59%, of which the export of independent brands reached 107000, with a year-on-year increase of + 77% and a month on month increase of – 28.7%; 52000 new energy vehicles were exported, a month on month increase of + 103.9%. The impact of chip shortage in the automotive industry was alleviated, and the production batch improved year-on-year in January. In January, the output of new energy passenger vehicles reached 428000 (year-on-year + 141.0%, month on month – 11.8%), and the wholesale sales volume reached 412000 (year-on-year + 141.4%, month on month – 18.5%). Caliber of traffic compulsory insurance: in January, there were 2175800 traffic compulsory insurance vehicles in the industry, with a month on month ratio of – 4.11% / – 0.62% respectively. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles with strong insurance caliber was 316100, with a month on month ratio of + 113.68% / – 34.68% respectively. Looking forward to February 2022: we expect that the overall output and wholesale of the passenger union industry are – 25% / – 25% month on month, respectively, and the corresponding year-on-year are + 36.42% / + 43.52% respectively; The overall export volume is expected to be 130000; The wholesale of new energy is expected to be 300000; The overall traffic insurance of the industry is expected to be – 35% month on month, about 1.41 million vehicles.
In January, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles decreased slightly month on month, mainly due to the large recovery of fuel vehicles under the gradual easing of chip shortage. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in January was 18.97%, with a month on month ratio of -2.38pct. Among them, the new energy penetration rate of independent brands / luxury brands / mainstream joint venture brands in January was 32.0% / 22.9% / 2.7% respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 3.2pct / – 4.3pct / – 1.0pct respectively. In terms of breakdown, the wholesale sales volume of BEV pure electric vehicles in January was 333000, with a month on month ratio of + 130.4% / – 21.2% respectively, and the industry penetration rate was 15.3%, with a month on month ratio of – 2.6pct; In January, the wholesale sales volume of PHEV models was 79000, with a month on month ratio of + 202.1% / – 4.3% respectively, and the industry penetration rate was 3.6%, with a month on month ratio of + 0.1pct.
At the level of automobile enterprises: new energy automobile enterprises performed better year-on-year, and most automobile enterprises went to the library through channels. Wholesale: 1) from a year-on-year perspective, new energy vehicle enterprises performed better year-on-year. Ideal / Byd Company Limited(002594) / GAC ea’an / Xiaopeng increased by more than 100% year-on-year, which were + 128.07% / + 125.05% / + 117.93% / + 114.83% respectively; Among the joint venture brands, SAIC Volkswagen performed best in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 51.69%. 2) On a month on month basis, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) January’s wholesale growth rate was + 102.28%, far exceeding the performance of the industry as a whole and other mainstream auto enterprises; Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) the wholesale sales volume of various brands achieved positive growth month on month. The wholesale sales volume of GAC passenger car / GAC ea’an / guangben / Guangfeng in January was + 13.73% / + 10.56% / + 0.11% / + 1.40% month on month respectively; Affected by seasonal factors, most other mainstream auto enterprises have negative month on month growth. Retail: 1) year on year, new energy vehicle enterprises ( Byd Company Limited(002594) + ideal + Weilai + Xiaopeng) performed better year on year, with year-on-year growth rates of + 69.69% / + 149.92% / + 41.48% / + 133.51% respectively. 2) On a month on month basis, the overall retail chain performance is better than the wholesale chain performance, the terminal demand is good, and the channel goes to the warehouse as a whole. Among them, SAIC passenger cars / Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) had a higher month on month growth rate of + 21.34% / + 18.85% respectively.
Investment suggestion: still optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector. The triple cycle resonance in 2022, the golden age of autonomy: 1) chip mitigation brings the demand for replenishment of the passenger car industry, and 2021q4-2022q3 enters the cycle of continuous improvement of production and sales data year-on-year. 2) Intelligent + electric + hybrid, a new round of new cars of independent brands have been listed one after another, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, driving the market share of independent brands to achieve higher quality. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. The whole vehicle segment recommends [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], and pays attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]. Parts section recommends [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) + China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], and pays attention to [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk warning: the recovery of downstream demand is lower than expected, and the epidemic control is lower than expected
