The off-season of phosphate fertilizer is not light, and the domestic and foreign demand is good, which is expected to usher in a prosperous market: according to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2021, China’s output of monoammonium phosphate was 12.53 million tons (year-on-year + 1.5%), and that of diammonium phosphate was 13.54 million tons (year-on-year – 4.3%); In 2021, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate in China was about 3.7859 million tons (year-on-year + 49.61%), and the export volume of diammonium phosphate was 6.569 million tons (year-on-year + 9.15%). The export of phosphate fertilizer was good, and the price was rising all the way. According to Baichuan, in 2021q4, due to the introduction of policies such as “ensuring supply and stabilizing price” and “export legal inspection”, the export of monoammonium phosphate was blocked, the promotion of China’s winter storage was slow, the inventory accumulated rapidly from the low level, the operating rate of enterprises fell, and the price of monoammonium phosphate fell from the high point to 2900 yuan / ton, but it is still in a historically high position. In 2022, the market for winter reserve fertilizer and spring ploughing fertilizer was launched, and the resumption pace of mainstream phosphorus and compound fertilizer enterprises was earlier than that in previous years. The demand for ammonium phosphate quickly warmed up, the price of monoammonium phosphate stopped falling and rose slightly to 3000 yuan / ton, the price of diammonium phosphate remained at a high level of 3700 yuan / ton, and the prices of overseas monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate (Morocco FOB) also remained at a high level of 835-840 dollars / ton and 880-915 dollars / ton. The time of the greatest pressure on phosphate fertilizer inventory has passed, and the price remains strong. With the gradual development of spring ploughing and fertilizer preparation, the peak demand season in China is coming, and the amount of ammonium phosphate enterprises to be received and sent in advance is sufficient. Some export orders in the second quarter are expected to pass the legal inspection, the export will be liberalized, the internal and external demand will be better, and the price of phosphate fertilizer has room for upward growth.
The price of phosphate rock has reached a historical high and the cost support is strong: according to Baichuan, the price of phosphate rock continued to rise in 2021. The market price of phosphate rock at the end of 2021 was about 645 yuan / ton, an increase of about 72.46% over 374 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year; The price of overseas phosphate rock (CFR India 68-70% BPL) increased from US $103 / ton at the beginning of 2021 to US $144 / ton at the end of 2021. Phosphate rock resources are non renewable, and the supply of phosphate rock is limited under the production restriction policy. The price of phosphate rock at home and abroad has reached an all-time high, and the prosperity of the global phosphate rock market may continue to rise. January February is the traditional stoppage period of phosphate rock in China. After the stoppage of mining in Hubei and Sichuan in early 2022, the market mining volume declined, the market supply tightened, and the price of phosphate rock remained high.
The demand for new energy is expected to drive the landscape of the phosphorus chemical industry chain upward: since 2021, lithium iron phosphate has achieved breakthroughs in energy density and low-temperature performance, and the cost is dominant, and the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased significantly. The large-scale demand of new energy vehicles is superimposed, the application proportion of iron lithium battery in new energy vehicles is increased, and the demand for raw material iron phosphate is also increasing, which is expected to drive the prosperity of phosphate rock phosphoric acid / monoammonium phosphate iron phosphate lithium iron phosphate industrial chain upward. According to Baichuan, the price of iron phosphate rose rapidly from 12000 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 to a high of 27000 yuan / ton in the year, with an increase of 125%. At present, the price is maintained at 23000 yuan / ton. According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, the global demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode is expected to be close to 1.8 million tons in 2025. According to Baichuan data, China’s lithium iron phosphate production capacity is about 712000 tons and iron phosphate production capacity is 626000 tons, so there is a large gap between supply and demand. Many enterprises have started to build iron phosphate projects. According to Baichuan, Ningxia Baichuan 20000 tons, Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) 20000 tons, Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) 200000 tons, Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) phase I 40000 tons are expected to be put into operation in 2022, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 50000 tons, Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) phase I 100000 tons, Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) phase II 60000 tons are expected to be put into operation in 2023, Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) phase II 250000 tons, Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) 800000 tons and other new production capacity are planned to be constructed.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) and its own phosphate rock resource reserve. The existing raw ore production capacity is 14.5 million tons / year, with a total basic phosphate fertilizer production capacity of 5.55 million tons / year. It is one of the largest phosphate fertilizer production enterprises in China (company announcement). At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , etc.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected, raw material price fluctuation, etc.
