Looking forward to 2022, policies will help steady growth, and investment growth is expected to accelerate. China’s real GDP growth rate in 2021 was 8.1% and the average growth rate in 2020-2021 was 5.1%. From a worldwide perspective, growth has obvious advantages, but from a trend point of view, it has weakened quarter by quarter. In 2022, consumption is weak under the repeated epidemic, and the export base is high or difficult to maintain a high growth rate. In order to achieve the expectation of economic growth of 5.5% – 6%, the foothold of stable growth lies in stable investment. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2021 was 4.9%, lower than that of GDP, mainly driven by manufacturing investment. From the perspective of trend, the annual investment growth showed a gradual slowdown trend.
In January, the decline in excavator sales continued to narrow, focusing on the investment in machinery under the main line of steady growth. In January, the decline of excavator sales continued to narrow, and the proportion of exports increased. According to the statistics of 26 excavator manufacturing enterprises by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 15607 excavators of various types were sold in January 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; Among them, there were 8282 sets in China, a year-on-year decrease of 48.3%; 7325 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 105%. In 2021, 25 main engine manufacturers sold 342784 excavators, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, of which 274357 were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%; Export sales volume was 68427, with a year-on-year increase of 97.0%.
Scientific and technological innovation, energy revolution and specialization and innovation are still the main lines of mechanical equipment investment in 2022.
In 2021, 53gw of photovoltaic installed capacity was added, with a year-on-year increase of 10%. In 2022, we will pay attention to the progress of TOPCON and hjt projects. According to the disclosure of the national energy administration, 54.88gw of photovoltaic installed capacity will be added in 2021. According to the prediction of the photovoltaic Association, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 270-330gw in 2025, and the five-year compound growth rate will reach 22.4%. Behind photovoltaic becoming the main energy is the continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase, and the core of cost reduction and efficiency increase is the technical iteration, in which the equipment is the key link, so the equipment flexibility is higher. Under the general trend of carbon neutralization, the demand of all links in the photovoltaic industry chain continues to release. At the same time, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvement, all links of silicon wafer, battery chip and module have the power to continuously expand production, accelerate the elimination and clearance of backward production capacity, expand the scale of advantageous production capacity and seize the profit window. In addition, the rapid technological change shortens the equipment life cycle, which makes the photovoltaic equipment industry reflect strong growth attributes.
Investment suggestion: the main line of steady growth in 2022 is highlighted, and the mechanical equipment industry will benefit from multiple perspectives. Since November 2021, in response to the downward pressure on the economy, the steady growth policy has continued to increase. Steady growth focuses on steady investment, and the starting point is expected to fall on infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment. The impact on the mechanical equipment sector is mainly in the following five aspects: (1) moderately advanced infrastructure, stable rail transit investment and smooth economic demand, and urban rail construction deserves attention; (2) The construction of energy base, the installation of wind power photovoltaic can be expected, and the equipment end can benefit from acceleration; (3) The sales volume of new energy charging equipment is broad, and the investment in new energy charging equipment is promising; (4) Under the background of “double carbon”, the demand for low-carbon transformation of traditional industries starts; (5) Special and new support for small and medium-sized enterprises will stimulate investment.
Risk tip: the risk that the manufacturing investment is lower than expected and the policy support is lower than expected.
