Looking forward to 2022: the global double carbon target is clear, the growth curve of electrification will be steeper, and the contradiction between supply and demand will become more prominent. We are optimistic about the continuous premium of energy metals, especially lithium resources. Carbon neutralization will promote the remodeling of the global energy system. After a key step from 0 to 1 in 2021, the growth curve of electrification will be steeper in the future. The contradiction between the greater demand growth in the downstream and the lagging capital expenditure in the upstream will become more prominent. The logic of resource scarcity continues to be strengthened, and we continue to be optimistic about the continuous premium at the resource end.
The global electrification process is accelerating again, and the supply and demand structure of energy metals is tight for a long time. In 2022, lithium prices will continue to be optimistic about a new high, and the prices of cobalt, nickel and rare earth may show high and steady-state fluctuations. ① Lithium: the profits of the industrial chain are rapidly transferred to the upstream, and the price is expected to remain high. From the ore side, the ore and Salt Lake capacity concentration is high, and the spot supply to the market is limited. The supply of lithium concentrate is tight. In 2022, the loose orders of marginal pricing will become more tight, the profits of the industrial chain will be quickly transferred to the upstream, and the premium at the resource side will be more obvious. ② Cobalt: it faces the pressure of increasing supply in the short term, but the epidemic continues to affect transportation, and the price fluctuates in a high and steady state in the long term. Mutanda’s resumption of production will increase the pressure on the supply side, but in the future, with the expansion of the power demand base in the supply and demand structure of cobalt products, the demand for new energy for consumer electronics will be good for a long time, and the transportation of cobalt raw materials in South Africa is still blocked under the global epidemic, and the price of cobalt products may have some support. ③ Nickel: the trend of industrial chain integration is significant, and the wet process project is about to be centralized. The cost advantage of wet process project is expected to accelerate the improvement of ternary permeability. ④ Recovery: the policy dividend period, the scale outbreak, and the future can be expected. ⑤ The demand for rare earth materials in the lower reaches of the country may be kept at a high level, or the supply of rare earth materials may be kept at a low level.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to focus on: lithium sector: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Zangger mining; Nickel cobalt sector: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) . Rare earth magnetic material sector: China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Ningbo Yunsheng Co.Ltd(600366) , Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) .
Risk tip: metal prices fell sharply; The terminal demand is less than expected; The company’s project is not progressing as expected.
