\u3000\u3000 Petrochina Company Limited(601857) (601857)
Under the background of overseas oil and gas giants reducing capital expenditure, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) has continued to increase capital expenditure for many years, which is expected to benefit from the improvement of oil and gas landscape in the long term: in 2021, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) capital expenditure is planned to be 239 billion yuan, higher than Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil and shell, and has been ahead of international peers for many years. With the continuous promotion of global carbon neutrality policy, according to the long-term capital expenditure plan announced by overseas giants, the growth rate of global oil and gas capital expenditure will continue to decrease. With the gradual recovery of global crude oil demand and the continuous tightening of supply side, the supply and demand pattern is expected to be more tense. As a basic energy, important chemical raw materials and important strategic reserves, the value of crude oil is bound to rise again. Petrochina Company Limited(601857) over the years, the company has continuously increased capital expenditure and made major breakthroughs in oil and gas reserves. With the improvement of the prosperity of the oil and gas industry, the company is expected to benefit in the long term. At the current time point, we believe that PetroChina should pay more attention to the long-term investment value of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) to meet the good opportunity of layout.
The growth rate of capital expenditure of overseas giants has decreased, and the medium and long-term crude oil supply is tight: the low oil price environment and epidemic since 2016 have kept the global oil and gas exploration expenditure low. In the post epidemic era, affected by shareholder return requirements and carbon neutrality, the capital expenditure growth planning of global oil giants is more cautious, or will remain at a low level for a long time; Under the background of carbon neutrality, overseas giants accelerate the transformation of new energy and focus on green energy projects. Traditional oil and gas investment is no longer favored; The downturn in capital expenditure of us shale oil manufacturers has led to a sharp decline in Duc and limited subsequent production expansion capacity. The capital expenditure of global oil enterprises is generally low, and the tight pattern of crude oil supply will continue.
Increase reserves and production to ensure national energy security and accelerate green and low-carbon Transformation: on July 21, 2018, Xi Jinping general secretary made an important instruction to vigorously improve exploration and development and ensure national energy security. In response to the call of the national policy of “increasing reserves and production”, the company vigorously improved exploration and development, launched the seven-year “increasing reserves and production” plan, and significantly increased the investment in upstream exploration and development. In 2021, the company’s oil and gas production equivalent in China is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year to 213 million tons, a record high; The output of crude oil has increased continuously for three years, and the production of natural gas has been accelerated. In 2021, the annual output equivalent of natural gas will exceed 100 million tons, accounting for 51.4% of the output equivalent of oil and gas. The foundation for stabilizing oil and increasing gas will be further consolidated. Under the strategic objectives of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the company plans to increase the development and utilization of new energy such as geothermal, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , wind energy and hydrogen energy, promote the coordinated development of new energy and oil and gas industry chain, actively promote the integrated development of natural gas power generation and new energy power generation, provide clean energy products for the society, and strive to achieve “carbon peak” around 2025, Achieve “carbon neutrality” around 2050.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company’s performance has reached a new high in 21 years, and the current valuation is at the bottom of history. In the long run, the company will actively layout the new energy field and accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation, which is in line with China’s “carbon neutral” development strategy and has broad development space in the future. Therefore, we maintain the company’s profit forecast from 2021 to 2023. It is estimated that the company’s net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 92.4/999/105.4 billion yuan respectively, equivalent to EPS of 0.50/0.55/0.58 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating of a + H shares.
Risk tips: the risk of sharp decline in crude oil price, the risk that the growth of natural gas demand is less than expected, the risk that the rapid development of new energy vehicles will impact the company’s refined oil sales, and geopolitical risk.
